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Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

Mainz

U S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 58%

38%

77%

Points per game

1,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

54%

69%

Both score Ø 50%

54%

46%

Average goals

3,2

3,9

Scored

1,8

3,2

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+2,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,06 xG 1,39

31% Possession 69%

8 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 6

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

21 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 9. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	+31	+22.4	33
2	Ein Frankfurt	13	8	3	2	+15	+5.3	27
3	Leverkusen	13	7	5	1	+10	+10.5	26
4	RB Leipzig	13	7	3	3	+7	-0.9	24
5	Freiburg	14	7	3	4	+1	+5.5	24
6	Wolfsburg	14	6	3	5	+6	-2.4	21
7	Dortmund	13	6	3	4	+4	+3.3	21
8	Stuttgart	13	5	5	3	+3	+4.6	20
9	Mainz	13	5	4	4	+5	+1.5	19
10	Werder Bremen	13	5	4	4	-4	-0.8	19
11	M'gladbach	13	5	3	5	+1	+1.8	18
12	Union Berlin	13	4	4	5	-2	-4.2	16
13	Augsburg	13	4	4	5	-9	-4.6	16
14	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-7	-9.7	13
15	St Pauli	13	3	2	8	-6	-5.9	11
16	Heidenheim	13	3	1	9	-11	-2.2	10
17	Holstein Kiel	13	1	2	10	-20	-10.1	5
18	Bochum	13	0	2	11	-24	-14.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	7	6	1	0	+12	+7.0	19
2	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+14	+11.6	16
3	Freiburg	7	5	1	1	+5	+5.2	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	6	4	2	0	+10	+5.0	14
5	Stuttgart	7	4	2	1	+7	+9.5	14
6	Leverkusen	7	4	2	1	+5	+7.4	14
7	Augsburg	7	4	2	1	+4	+5.8	14
8	M'gladbach	7	4	1	2	+4	+1.9	13
9	RB Leipzig	6	3	2	1	+3	+1.1	11
10	Union Berlin	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.6	11
11	Hoffenheim	7	3	1	3	-2	-2.9	10
12	Mainz	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.0	8
13	Wolfsburg	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.2	8
14	Werder Bremen	6	1	3	2	-5	-2.0	6
15	St Pauli	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.4	5
16	Heidenheim	6	1	1	4	-6	+1.1	4
17	Holstein Kiel	7	1	0	6	-15	-6.2	3
18	Bochum	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+17	+10.8	17
2	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+8	-0.2	13
3	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.3	13
4	RB Leipzig	7	4	1	2	+4	-2.0	13
5	Werder Bremen	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.2	13
6	Leverkusen	6	3	3	0	+5	+3.0	12
7	Mainz	6	3	2	1	+6	-0.4	11
8	Freiburg	7	2	2	3	-4	+0.3	8
9	St Pauli	7	2	0	5	-2	-5.5	6
10	Stuttgart	6	1	3	2	-4	-5.0	6
11	Heidenheim	7	2	0	5	-5	-3.3	6
12	M'gladbach	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.1	5
13	Union Berlin	7	1	2	4	-4	-4.8	5
14	Hoffenheim	6	0	3	3	-5	-6.8	3
15	Holstein Kiel	6	0	2	4	-5	-3.9	2
16	Dortmund	6	0	2	4	-8	-3.7	2
17	Augsburg	6	0	2	4	-13	-10.4	2
18	Bochum	7	0	0	7	-14	-8.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.