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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Estrela

S T S U T

0–1

Full-time

Sp Braga

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 39%

24%

53%

Points per game

0,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

47%

59%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,28 xG 1,23

26% Possession 74%

7 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 8

1 Offside 3

21 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 14. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	18	14	2	2	+37	+32.9	44
2	Benfica	18	13	2	3	+31	+22.6	41
3	Porto	17	13	1	3	+29	+18.8	40
4	Sp Braga	17	9	4	4	+11	+11.6	31
5	Santa Clara	18	10	1	7	+1	+9.9	31
6	Guimaraes	18	6	8	4	+4	+6.0	26
7	Casa Pia	17	6	6	5	-1	-3.1	24
8	Moreirense	18	6	5	7	-3	+0.7	23
9	Estoril	18	5	6	7	-9	-15.5	21
10	Famalicao	18	4	8	6	-4	-8.6	20
11	Rio Ave	18	5	5	8	-13	-15.0	20
12	Gil Vicente	17	4	7	6	-7	-6.7	19
13	Nacional	18	5	4	9	-8	-2.5	19
14	Estrela	17	4	4	9	-13	-10.0	16
15	Arouca	18	4	4	10	-15	-10.7	16
16	Farense	18	3	6	9	-12	-15.5	15
17	AVS	18	2	9	7	-13	-9.0	15
18	Boavista	17	2	6	9	-15	-5.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	+17.4	27
2	Porto	9	9	0	0	+23	+18.7	27
3	Sp Lisbon	8	7	0	1	+14	+13.0	21
4	Santa Clara	10	6	1	3	+1	+9.5	19
5	Guimaraes	9	4	4	1	+4	+3.9	16
6	Moreirense	9	4	4	1	+2	-1.5	16
7	Rio Ave	9	4	4	1	+1	-1.7	16
8	Nacional	9	5	1	3	-1	-1.3	16
9	Estrela	9	4	2	3	-1	-3.5	14
10	Gil Vicente	8	3	4	1	+5	+0.4	13
11	Casa Pia	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.2	13
12	Sp Braga	9	3	3	3	+3	+9.5	12
13	Estoril	9	3	3	3	-3	-6.7	12
14	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-0.7	10
15	AVS	9	2	4	3	-5	-6.5	10
16	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.8	8
17	Farense	8	2	1	5	-7	-5.2	7
18	Boavista	8	0	3	5	-10	-2.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	7	2	1	+23	+19.9	23
2	Sp Braga	8	6	1	1	+8	+2.1	19
3	Benfica	8	4	2	2	+5	+5.2	14
4	Porto	8	4	1	3	+6	+0.1	13
5	Santa Clara	8	4	0	4	+0	+0.4	12
6	Casa Pia	8	3	2	3	-3	-4.3	11
7	Guimaraes	9	2	4	3	+0	+2.2	10
8	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-7.9	10
9	Boavista	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.6	9
10	Estoril	9	2	3	4	-6	-8.8	9
11	Farense	10	1	5	4	-5	-10.3	8
12	Arouca	10	2	2	6	-10	-3.9	8
13	Moreirense	9	2	1	6	-5	+2.2	7
14	Gil Vicente	9	1	3	5	-12	-7.2	6
15	AVS	9	0	5	4	-8	-2.4	5
16	Rio Ave	9	1	1	7	-14	-13.3	4
17	Nacional	9	0	3	6	-7	-1.2	3
18	Estrela	8	0	2	6	-12	-6.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.