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Bundesliga

Referee: Florian Exner

St Pauli

S U T T U

1–1

Full-time

RB Leipzig

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,2

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 39%

17%

61%

Points per game

0,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

56%

61%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,6

3,3

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,45 xG 1,04

46% Possession 54%

7 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 3

5 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Pauli 17. · RB Leipzig 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	19	16	2	1	+56	+39.2	50
2	Dortmund	19	12	6	1	+21	+13.9	42
3	Hoffenheim	18	11	3	4	+16	+4.2	36
4	Stuttgart	19	11	3	5	+10	+4.4	36
5	RB Leipzig	18	11	2	5	+12	+8.2	35
6	Leverkusen	18	10	2	6	+10	+10.4	32
7	Freiburg	19	7	6	6	-1	+5.3	27
8	Ein Frankfurt	19	7	6	6	-3	-1.6	27
9	Union Berlin	19	6	6	7	-6	-0.1	24
10	FC Koln	19	5	5	9	-4	-3.2	20
11	M'gladbach	19	5	5	9	-9	-4.6	20
12	Wolfsburg	19	5	4	10	-13	-9.3	19
13	Augsburg	19	5	4	10	-14	-12.5	19
14	Hamburg	18	4	6	8	-10	-5.4	18
15	Werder Bremen	18	4	6	8	-14	-11.2	18
16	Mainz	19	3	6	10	-11	-10.9	15
17	St Pauli	18	3	4	11	-15	-14.7	13
18	Heidenheim	19	3	4	12	-25	-11.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	1	1	+31	+19.2	25
2	Dortmund	9	7	2	0	+13	+10.2	23
3	RB Leipzig	9	7	0	2	+11	+6.5	21
4	Stuttgart	9	6	2	1	+2	+1.6	20
5	Leverkusen	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.3	19
6	Hoffenheim	9	6	0	3	+9	+3.2	18
7	Freiburg	9	5	3	1	+7	+9.9	18
8	Hamburg	9	4	3	2	+4	+2.2	15
9	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+1	+2.6	14
10	Union Berlin	10	3	4	3	-1	+1.7	13
11	Werder Bremen	8	3	3	2	-4	+1.6	12
12	Augsburg	10	3	3	4	-6	-6.8	12
13	FC Koln	9	3	2	4	+2	+2.7	11
14	Mainz	10	2	3	5	-3	+0.4	9
15	Wolfsburg	10	2	3	5	-5	-3.1	9
16	M'gladbach	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.2	9
17	Heidenheim	10	2	3	5	-12	-7.7	9
18	St Pauli	8	2	2	4	-7	-3.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+25	+20.1	25
2	Dortmund	10	5	4	1	+8	+3.6	19
3	Hoffenheim	9	5	3	1	+7	+1.0	18
4	Stuttgart	10	5	1	4	+8	+2.8	16
5	RB Leipzig	9	4	2	3	+1	+1.6	14
6	Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	+0	-0.9	13
7	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	4	3	-4	-4.2	13
8	M'gladbach	9	3	2	4	-1	-0.4	11
9	Union Berlin	9	3	2	4	-5	-1.9	11
10	Wolfsburg	9	3	1	5	-8	-6.2	10
11	FC Koln	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.0	9
12	Freiburg	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.6	9
13	Augsburg	9	2	1	6	-8	-5.7	7
14	Mainz	9	1	3	5	-8	-11.3	6
15	Werder Bremen	10	1	3	6	-10	-12.8	6
16	St Pauli	10	1	2	7	-8	-11.4	5
17	Heidenheim	9	1	1	7	-13	-4.2	4
18	Hamburg	9	0	3	6	-14	-7.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.