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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

RB Leipzig

S S T T S

1–5

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

5,0

Scored

2,2

4,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+3,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 76%

63%

88%

Points per game

2,0

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 78%

56%

100%

Both score Ø 49%

44%

53%

Average goals

3,2

4,6

Scored

2,0

3,9

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+3,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,45 xG 4,56

42% Possession 58%

17 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 12

5 Blocked shots 6

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 9

0 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 4. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	15	2	0	+53	+36.8	47
2	Dortmund	18	11	6	1	+18	+13.3	39
3	Hoffenheim	17	10	3	4	+14	+3.5	33
4	RB Leipzig	16	10	2	4	+13	+9.6	32
5	Stuttgart	17	10	2	5	+7	+3.9	32
6	Leverkusen	17	9	2	6	+9	+8.8	29
7	Ein Frankfurt	18	7	6	5	-1	-0.9	27
8	Freiburg	17	6	5	6	-2	+4.1	23
9	Union Berlin	17	6	5	6	-3	+0.6	23
10	FC Koln	18	5	5	8	-3	-2.3	20
11	M'gladbach	18	5	5	8	-6	-4.2	20
12	Wolfsburg	18	5	4	9	-11	-6.3	19
13	Werder Bremen	17	4	6	7	-13	-9.6	18
14	Hamburg	17	4	5	8	-10	-5.4	17
15	Augsburg	17	4	3	10	-15	-11.9	15
16	Heidenheim	18	3	4	11	-22	-11.1	13
17	Mainz	18	2	6	10	-13	-14.0	12
18	St Pauli	17	3	3	11	-15	-14.7	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+32	+18.9	25
2	Dortmund	9	7	2	0	+13	+10.2	23
3	RB Leipzig	8	7	0	1	+15	+8.6	21
4	Stuttgart	8	6	1	1	+2	+1.5	19
5	Hoffenheim	9	6	0	3	+9	+3.2	18
6	Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+9	+9.7	16
7	Freiburg	8	4	3	1	+6	+9.0	15
8	Hamburg	9	4	3	2	+4	+2.2	15
9	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+3	+3.3	14
10	Union Berlin	9	3	4	2	+2	+2.3	13
11	Werder Bremen	8	3	3	2	-4	+1.6	12
12	FC Koln	9	3	2	4	+2	+2.7	11
13	Augsburg	9	3	2	4	-6	-6.5	11
14	Wolfsburg	10	2	3	5	-5	-3.1	9
15	M'gladbach	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.8	9
16	Heidenheim	9	2	3	4	-9	-7.0	9
17	St Pauli	7	2	1	4	-7	-3.3	7
18	Mainz	9	1	3	5	-5	-2.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+21	+18.0	22
2	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+5	+3.0	16
3	Hoffenheim	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.3	15
4	Stuttgart	9	4	1	4	+5	+2.4	13
5	Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	+0	-0.9	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	4	3	-4	-4.2	13
7	M'gladbach	9	3	2	4	-1	-0.4	11
8	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.9	11
9	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-5	-1.7	10
10	Wolfsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	-3.1	10
11	FC Koln	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.1	9
12	Freiburg	9	2	2	5	-8	-4.9	8
13	Mainz	9	1	3	5	-8	-11.3	6
14	Werder Bremen	9	1	3	5	-9	-11.2	6
15	St Pauli	10	1	2	7	-8	-11.4	5
16	Augsburg	8	1	1	6	-9	-5.4	4
17	Heidenheim	9	1	1	7	-13	-4.2	4
18	Hamburg	8	0	2	6	-14	-7.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.