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Bundesliga

Referee: Harm Osmers

Dortmund

U U S U S

3–2

Full-time

St Pauli

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 39%

59%

19%

Points per game

2,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

41%

56%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,9

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,20 xG 0,54

63% Possession 37%

10 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · St Pauli 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	15	2	0	+53	+36.8	47
2	Dortmund	17	10	6	1	+17	+10.6	36
3	RB Leipzig	16	10	2	4	+13	+9.6	32
4	Stuttgart	17	10	2	5	+7	+3.9	32
5	Hoffenheim	16	9	3	4	+13	+2.9	30
6	Leverkusen	16	9	2	5	+10	+9.4	29
7	Ein Frankfurt	18	7	6	5	-1	-0.9	27
8	Freiburg	17	6	5	6	-2	+4.1	23
9	Union Berlin	17	6	5	6	-3	+0.6	23
10	M'gladbach	17	5	4	8	-6	-3.5	19
11	Wolfsburg	17	5	3	9	-11	-6.2	18
12	Werder Bremen	17	4	6	7	-13	-9.6	18
13	FC Koln	17	4	5	8	-4	-2.9	17
14	Hamburg	16	4	4	8	-10	-6.1	16
15	Augsburg	17	4	3	10	-15	-11.9	15
16	Mainz	17	2	6	9	-12	-13.5	12
17	St Pauli	16	3	3	10	-14	-12.1	12
18	Heidenheim	17	3	3	11	-22	-11.2	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+32	+18.9	25
2	RB Leipzig	8	7	0	1	+15	+8.6	21
3	Dortmund	8	6	2	0	+12	+7.6	20
4	Stuttgart	8	6	1	1	+2	+1.5	19
5	Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+9	+9.7	16
6	Hoffenheim	8	5	0	3	+8	+2.6	15
7	Freiburg	8	4	3	1	+6	+9.0	15
8	Hamburg	8	4	2	2	+4	+1.5	14
9	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+3	+3.3	14
10	Union Berlin	9	3	4	2	+2	+2.3	13
11	Werder Bremen	8	3	3	2	-4	+1.6	12
12	Augsburg	9	3	2	4	-6	-6.5	11
13	M'gladbach	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.8	9
14	Heidenheim	9	2	3	4	-9	-7.0	9
15	FC Koln	8	2	2	4	+1	+2.2	8
16	Wolfsburg	9	2	2	5	-5	-3.1	8
17	St Pauli	7	2	1	4	-7	-3.3	7
18	Mainz	9	1	3	5	-5	-2.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+21	+18.0	22
2	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+5	+3.0	16
3	Hoffenheim	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.3	15
4	Stuttgart	9	4	1	4	+5	+2.4	13
5	Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	+1	-0.3	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	4	3	-4	-4.2	13
7	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.9	11
8	M'gladbach	8	3	1	4	-1	+0.3	10
9	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-5	-1.7	10
10	Wolfsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	-3.1	10
11	FC Koln	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.1	9
12	Freiburg	9	2	2	5	-8	-4.9	8
13	Mainz	8	1	3	4	-7	-10.8	6
14	Werder Bremen	9	1	3	5	-9	-11.2	6
15	St Pauli	9	1	2	6	-7	-8.8	5
16	Augsburg	8	1	1	6	-9	-5.4	4
17	Heidenheim	8	1	0	7	-13	-4.2	3
18	Hamburg	8	0	2	6	-14	-7.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.