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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Man City

S S S U S

4–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,7

4,3

Scored

3,0

2,7

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 30/32 matches

Win Ø 73%

73%

72%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

67%

69%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

59%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

2,6

2,4

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,53 xG 0,48

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Arsenal 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	32	23	6	3	+43	+12.3	75
2	Man City	30	22	4	4	+50	+16.9	70
3	Newcastle	31	16	11	4	+29	+8.5	59
4	Man United	30	18	5	7	+9	+3.1	59
5	Aston Villa	33	16	6	11	+5	-1.3	54
6	Liverpool	32	15	8	9	+22	+9.0	53
7	Tottenham	32	16	5	11	+7	-1.4	53
8	Brighton	30	14	7	9	+15	+15.5	49
9	Brentford	33	11	14	8	+7	+3.3	47
10	Fulham	32	13	6	13	+1	-6.0	45
11	Chelsea	32	10	9	13	-5	+3.3	39
12	Crystal Palace	33	9	10	14	-11	-3.7	37
13	Wolves	33	10	7	16	-15	-6.4	37
14	West Ham	32	9	7	16	-9	-1.8	34
15	Bournemouth	32	9	6	17	-32	-6.5	33
16	Leeds	33	7	9	17	-21	-9.2	30
17	Nott'm Forest	33	7	9	17	-31	-14.0	30
18	Leicester	33	8	5	20	-13	-3.1	29
19	Everton	32	6	10	16	-22	-8.5	28
20	Southampton	32	6	6	20	-29	-9.9	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	15	13	1	1	+35	+9.9	40
2	Arsenal	16	12	3	1	+24	+9.7	39
3	Man United	15	11	3	1	+19	+7.6	36
4	Liverpool	15	10	4	1	+26	+9.9	34
5	Tottenham	16	11	0	5	+13	+2.4	33
6	Newcastle	15	9	5	1	+19	+6.9	32
7	Aston Villa	17	10	2	5	+10	+3.1	32
8	Brentford	16	7	7	2	+13	+3.5	28
9	Wolves	17	8	2	7	-2	+0.4	26
10	Fulham	16	7	4	5	+1	-0.5	25
11	Brighton	14	7	3	4	+11	+8.8	24
12	Nott'm Forest	17	6	6	5	+1	-6.8	24
13	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+1	+4.0	23
14	West Ham	17	6	4	7	-1	+1.4	22
15	Crystal Palace	16	5	6	5	-5	-3.7	21
16	Leeds	17	5	6	6	-8	-1.9	21
17	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-8	-2.4	19
18	Everton	16	5	3	8	-6	-0.6	18
19	Leicester	16	4	3	9	-2	-1.0	15
20	Southampton	16	2	4	10	-15	-4.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	11	3	2	+19	+2.6	36
2	Man City	15	9	3	3	+15	+7.0	30
3	Newcastle	16	7	6	3	+10	+1.6	27
4	Brighton	16	7	4	5	+4	+6.6	25
5	Man United	15	7	2	6	-10	-4.5	23
6	Aston Villa	16	6	4	6	-5	-4.4	22
7	Fulham	16	6	2	8	+0	-5.6	20
8	Tottenham	16	5	5	6	-6	-3.8	20
9	Liverpool	17	5	4	8	-4	-0.9	19
10	Brentford	17	4	7	6	-6	-0.3	19
11	Crystal Palace	17	4	4	9	-6	+0.0	16
12	Chelsea	15	4	4	7	-6	-0.6	16
13	Leicester	17	4	2	11	-11	-2.1	14
14	Southampton	16	4	2	10	-14	-5.1	14
15	Bournemouth	16	4	2	10	-24	-4.1	14
16	West Ham	15	3	3	9	-8	-3.1	12
17	Wolves	16	2	5	9	-13	-6.8	11
18	Everton	16	1	7	8	-16	-8.0	10
19	Leeds	16	2	3	11	-13	-7.3	9
20	Nott'm Forest	16	1	3	12	-32	-7.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.