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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Arsenal

U S S U U

3–3

Full-time

Southampton

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,7

0,7

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 47%

74%

19%

Points per game

2,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

68%

48%

Both score Ø 53%

58%

48%

Average goals

3,4

2,5

Scored

2,4

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,59 xG 1,33

74% Possession 26%

25 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 1. · Southampton 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	31	23	5	3	+43	+11.0	74
2	Man City	30	22	4	4	+50	+16.9	70
3	Man United	30	18	5	7	+9	+3.1	59
4	Newcastle	30	15	11	4	+24	+5.7	56
5	Tottenham	31	16	5	10	+12	+1.4	53
6	Aston Villa	31	15	5	11	+4	-1.2	50
7	Brighton	29	14	7	8	+17	+15.6	49
8	Liverpool	30	13	8	9	+20	+5.7	47
9	Brentford	31	10	13	8	+5	+2.4	43
10	Fulham	30	12	6	12	+1	-5.9	42
11	Chelsea	31	10	9	12	-3	+3.2	39
12	Crystal Palace	31	9	9	13	-9	-3.2	36
13	Wolves	31	9	7	15	-16	-5.4	34
14	Bournemouth	31	9	6	16	-28	-5.6	33
15	West Ham	30	8	7	15	-12	-1.4	31
16	Leeds	31	7	8	16	-20	-7.9	29
17	Everton	31	6	9	16	-22	-8.4	27
18	Nott'm Forest	31	6	9	16	-32	-12.1	27
19	Leicester	31	7	4	20	-14	-5.1	25
20	Southampton	31	6	5	20	-29	-8.6	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	15	13	1	1	+35	+9.9	40
2	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+24	+8.4	38
3	Man United	15	11	3	1	+19	+7.6	36
4	Tottenham	16	11	0	5	+13	+2.4	33
5	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+25	+7.9	31
6	Newcastle	14	8	5	1	+14	+4.1	29
7	Aston Villa	16	9	2	5	+9	+2.2	29
8	Brentford	15	7	6	2	+13	+2.5	27
9	Brighton	14	7	3	4	+11	+8.8	24
10	Chelsea	16	6	5	5	+3	+3.9	23
11	Wolves	16	7	2	7	-4	-0.2	23
12	West Ham	16	6	4	6	+0	+2.7	22
13	Fulham	15	6	4	5	+0	-1.3	22
14	Nott'm Forest	16	5	6	5	-1	-6.8	21
15	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-5	-3.8	20
16	Leeds	16	5	5	6	-8	-1.4	20
17	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-4	-1.5	19
18	Everton	16	5	3	8	-6	-0.6	18
19	Leicester	15	3	3	9	-3	-2.5	12
20	Southampton	16	2	4	10	-15	-4.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	11	3	2	+19	+2.6	36
2	Man City	15	9	3	3	+15	+7.0	30
3	Newcastle	16	7	6	3	+10	+1.6	27
4	Brighton	15	7	4	4	+6	+6.7	25
5	Man United	15	7	2	6	-10	-4.5	23
6	Aston Villa	15	6	3	6	-5	-3.4	21
7	Fulham	15	6	2	7	+1	-4.6	20
8	Tottenham	15	5	5	5	-1	-1.0	20
9	Crystal Palace	16	4	4	8	-4	+0.6	16
10	Liverpool	16	4	4	8	-5	-2.3	16
11	Chelsea	15	4	4	7	-6	-0.6	16
12	Brentford	16	3	7	6	-8	-0.2	16
13	Bournemouth	16	4	2	10	-24	-4.1	14
14	Leicester	16	4	1	11	-11	-2.6	13
15	Southampton	15	4	1	10	-14	-3.9	13
16	Wolves	15	2	5	8	-12	-5.2	11
17	Leeds	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.5	9
18	West Ham	14	2	3	9	-12	-4.0	9
19	Everton	15	1	6	8	-16	-7.9	9
20	Nott'm Forest	15	1	3	11	-31	-5.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.