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Serie A

Referee: F Pasqua

Sampdoria

S S S T T

1–4

Full-time

Milan

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,2

4,2

Scored

1,7

2,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,5

This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 40%

33%

47%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

64%

53%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

42% Possession 58%

16 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 11

2 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sampdoria 15. · Milan 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	36	26	5	5	+37	83
2	Inter	37	23	10	4	+43	79
3	Atalanta	37	23	9	5	+52	78
4	Lazio	36	23	6	7	+37	75
5	Roma	36	19	7	10	+23	64
6	Milan	36	17	9	10	+11	60
7	Napoli	37	17	8	12	+9	59
8	Sassuolo	36	13	9	14	+2	48
9	Parma	37	13	7	17	-2	46
10	Verona	36	11	13	12	-4	46
11	Bologna	36	12	10	14	-9	46
12	Fiorentina	36	10	13	13	-3	43
13	Cagliari	36	10	12	14	-3	42
14	Udinese	36	11	9	16	-14	42
15	Sampdoria	36	12	5	19	-14	41
16	Torino	36	11	6	19	-21	39
17	Genoa	36	9	9	18	-24	36
18	Lecce	36	8	8	20	-33	32
19	Brescia	36	6	6	24	-42	24
20	Spal	36	5	5	26	-45	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	16	2	0	+31	50
2	Lazio	18	13	3	2	+27	42
3	Inter	19	11	6	2	+23	39
4	Atalanta	18	12	2	4	+27	38
5	Roma	19	10	4	5	+9	34
6	Milan	18	8	6	4	+8	30
7	Napoli	18	9	3	6	+5	30
8	Verona	18	8	5	5	+1	29
9	Torino	18	7	4	7	-6	25
10	Sassuolo	17	7	3	7	+7	24
11	Udinese	18	6	6	6	-4	24
12	Parma	19	7	2	10	+2	23
13	Cagliari	18	6	4	8	+2	22
14	Sampdoria	18	6	4	8	-2	22
15	Bologna	18	5	7	6	-4	22
16	Fiorentina	18	4	8	6	-4	20
17	Genoa	18	6	1	11	-10	19
18	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-10	17
19	Brescia	18	3	4	11	-13	13
20	Spal	18	2	4	12	-22	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	19	11	7	1	+25	40
2	Inter	18	12	4	2	+20	40
3	Lazio	18	10	3	5	+10	33
4	Juventus	18	10	3	5	+6	33
5	Roma	17	9	3	5	+14	30
6	Milan	18	9	3	6	+3	30
7	Napoli	19	8	5	6	+4	29
8	Bologna	18	7	3	8	-5	24
9	Sassuolo	19	6	6	7	-5	24
10	Fiorentina	18	6	5	7	+1	23
11	Parma	18	6	5	7	-4	23
12	Cagliari	18	4	8	6	-5	20
13	Sampdoria	18	6	1	11	-12	19
14	Udinese	18	5	3	10	-10	18
15	Verona	18	3	8	7	-5	17
16	Genoa	18	3	8	7	-14	17
17	Lecce	18	4	3	11	-23	15
18	Torino	18	4	2	12	-15	14
19	Brescia	18	3	2	13	-29	11
20	Spal	18	3	1	14	-23	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.