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Serie A

Referee: Fabio Maresca

Milan

U U S S T

3–2

Full-time

Sampdoria

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Sampdoria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,2

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 8/9 matches

Win Ø 41%

38%

44%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

63%

33%

Both score Ø 55%

88%

22%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,4

0,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 14. · Sampdoria 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	9	1	0	+14	28
2	Napoli	9	7	0	2	+8	21
3	Inter	9	6	1	2	+7	19
4	Lazio	9	6	0	3	+4	18
5	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	+8	15
6	Sampdoria	9	4	3	2	+8	15
7	Sassuolo	10	4	3	3	+1	15
8	Roma	9	4	2	3	+4	14
9	Torino	10	3	5	2	+0	14
10	Genoa	9	4	2	3	-2	14
11	Cagliari	10	3	4	3	-2	13
12	Parma	10	4	1	5	-4	13
13	Atalanta	10	3	3	4	+5	12
14	Milan	8	3	3	2	+4	12
15	Spal	10	4	0	6	-5	12
16	Udinese	10	2	3	5	-5	9
17	Bologna	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Empoli	10	1	3	6	-6	6
19	Frosinone	10	1	2	7	-15	5
20	Chievo	10	0	2	8	-18	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	5	4	1	0	+11	13
2	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+7	12
4	Inter	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Sassuolo	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Genoa	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Lazio	4	3	0	1	+4	9
8	Cagliari	5	2	3	0	+3	9
9	Roma	5	2	2	1	+4	8
10	Sampdoria	5	2	2	1	+3	8
11	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+5	7
12	Milan	3	2	1	0	+3	7
13	Parma	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Torino	5	2	1	2	-1	7
15	Bologna	5	2	1	2	-1	7
16	Spal	5	2	0	3	-3	6
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-5	4
19	Frosinone	5	0	2	3	-8	2
20	Chievo	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	Inter	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+1	9
4	Lazio	5	3	0	2	+0	9
5	Sampdoria	4	2	1	1	+5	7
6	Torino	5	1	4	0	+1	7
7	Roma	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Spal	5	2	0	3	-2	6
9	Parma	5	2	0	3	-4	6
10	Milan	5	1	2	2	+1	5
11	Atalanta	5	1	2	2	+0	5
12	Udinese	5	1	2	2	+0	5
13	Sassuolo	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Frosinone	5	1	0	4	-7	3
17	Fiorentina	5	0	2	3	-3	2
18	Empoli	5	0	2	3	-4	2
19	Bologna	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Chievo	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.