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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Bologna

T T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Spezia

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 31%

33%

28%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

58%

60%

Both score Ø 53%

46%

60%

Average goals

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

61% Possession 39%

19 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 0

4 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bologna 13. · Spezia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	26	17	5	4	+24	56
2	Inter	25	16	6	3	+33	54
3	Napoli	26	16	6	4	+29	54
4	Juventus	26	13	8	5	+15	47
5	Atalanta	25	12	8	5	+16	44
6	Lazio	26	12	7	7	+13	43
7	Fiorentina	25	13	3	9	+10	42
8	Roma	26	12	5	9	+10	41
9	Verona	26	10	7	9	+7	37
10	Torino	25	9	6	10	+6	33
11	Sassuolo	26	8	9	9	-1	33
12	Empoli	26	8	7	11	-12	31
13	Bologna	24	8	4	12	-11	28
14	Sampdoria	26	7	5	14	-7	26
15	Spezia	25	7	5	13	-19	26
16	Udinese	24	5	10	9	-10	25
17	Cagliari	26	4	10	12	-21	22
18	Venezia	25	5	7	13	-21	22
19	Genoa	26	1	13	12	-25	16
20	Salernitana	24	3	5	16	-36	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	9	2	2	+18	29
2	Napoli	13	8	2	3	+14	26
3	Milan	13	8	2	3	+10	26
4	Lazio	12	7	4	1	+15	25
5	Fiorentina	12	8	1	3	+15	25
6	Roma	14	7	4	3	+5	25
7	Torino	13	7	3	3	+12	24
8	Juventus	13	7	3	3	+8	24
9	Verona	13	7	2	4	+10	23
10	Bologna	12	5	2	5	+0	17
11	Sampdoria	14	4	3	7	-3	15
12	Udinese	12	3	6	3	-3	15
13	Atalanta	12	3	5	4	+2	14
14	Sassuolo	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	Spezia	12	3	3	6	-3	12
16	Cagliari	13	2	6	5	-6	12
17	Empoli	13	3	2	8	-14	11
18	Venezia	13	2	4	7	-10	10
19	Genoa	12	0	6	6	-10	6
20	Salernitana	12	1	3	8	-19	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	13	9	3	1	+14	30
2	Atalanta	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Napoli	13	8	4	1	+15	28
4	Inter	12	7	4	1	+15	25
5	Juventus	13	6	5	2	+7	23
6	Empoli	13	5	5	3	+2	20
7	Sassuolo	13	5	4	4	+3	19
8	Lazio	14	5	3	6	-2	18
9	Fiorentina	13	5	2	6	-5	17
10	Roma	12	5	1	6	+5	16
11	Verona	13	3	5	5	-3	14
12	Spezia	13	4	2	7	-16	14
13	Venezia	12	3	3	6	-11	12
14	Sampdoria	12	3	2	7	-4	11
15	Bologna	12	3	2	7	-11	11
16	Udinese	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	Genoa	14	1	7	6	-15	10
18	Cagliari	13	2	4	7	-15	10
19	Torino	12	2	3	7	-6	9
20	Salernitana	12	2	2	8	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.