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Serie A
Referee: S Sozza
Cagliari
S T U S U
1–1
Full-time
Napoli
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,3
This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 40%
16%
64%
Points per game
0,8
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
56%
44%
Both score Ø 52%
64%
40%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

47% Possession 53%
13 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 6
0 Offside 4
17 Free kicks against 22
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cagliari 18. · Napoli 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Milan 26 17 5 4 +24 56
2 Inter 25 16 6 3 +33 54
3 Napoli 25 16 5 4 +29 53
4 Juventus 26 13 8 5 +15 47
5 Atalanta 25 12 8 5 +16 44
6 Lazio 26 12 7 7 +13 43
7 Fiorentina 25 13 3 9 +10 42
8 Roma 26 12 5 9 +10 41
9 Verona 26 10 7 9 +7 37
10 Torino 25 9 6 10 +6 33
11 Sassuolo 26 8 9 9 -1 33
12 Empoli 26 8 7 11 -12 31
13 Bologna 24 8 4 12 -11 28
14 Sampdoria 26 7 5 14 -7 26
15 Spezia 25 7 5 13 -19 26
16 Udinese 24 5 10 9 -10 25
17 Venezia 25 5 7 13 -21 22
18 Cagliari 25 4 9 12 -21 21
19 Genoa 26 1 13 12 -25 16
20 Salernitana 24 3 5 16 -36 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cagliari Napoli
27′
🔁 K. Malcuit
↦ G. Di Lorenzo
João Pedro 🟨
35′
42′
🟨 Kévin Malcuit
Half-time 1–0
1–0 G. Pereiro
A. Deiola
58′
64′
🟨 Kalidou Koulibaly
67′
🔁 V. Osimhen
↦ A. Petagna
67′
🔁 Fabián Ruiz
↦ Juan Jesus
67′
🔁 A. Ounas
↦ D. Demme
R. Marin 🔁
↦ A. Grassi
75′
G. Zappa 🔁
↦ D. Baselli
82′
L. Pavoletti 🔁
↦ G. Pereiro
83′
83′
🔁 A. Zanoli
↦ K. Malcuit
87′
V. Osimhen 1–1
Mário Rui
C. Lykogiannis 🔁
↦ Dalbert Henrique
94′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Cagliari

3-5-2
28 A. Cragno G
3 E. Goldaniga D
29 Dalbert Henrique M
12 R. Bellanova M
15 G. Altare D
66 M. Lovato D
4 D. Baselli M
27 A. Grassi M
20 G. Pereiro F
14 A. Deiola M
10 João Pedro F
Bench (11)
8 R. Marin
25 G. Zappa
30 L. Pavoletti
22 C. Lykogiannis
33 A. Obert
9 K. Baldé
1 S. Aresti
19 L. Gagliano
44 A. Carboni
31 B. Radunović
23 L. Ceppitelli

Coach: W. Mazzarri

Napoli

3-4-2-1
25 D. Ospina G
5 Juan Jesus D
6 Mário Rui M
26 K. Koulibaly D
22 G. Di Lorenzo M
13 A. Rrahmani D
4 D. Demme M
20 P. Zieliński M
7 E. Elmas F
14 D. Mertens F
37 A. Petagna F
Bench (8)
2 K. Malcuit
9 V. Osimhen
8 Fabián Ruiz
33 A. Ounas
59 A. Zanoli
1 A. Meret
12 D. Marfella
31 F. Ghoulam

Coach: L. Spalletti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
6,04
U ✓
4,41
B
1,53
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,67
U2,5 ✓
2,22
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Sozza · 115 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.