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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Genoa

T S U T T

1–0

Full-time

Salernitana

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 11%

22%

Points per game

0,9

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,1

0,7

Conceded

1,6

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,49 xG 0,65

52% Possession 48%

8 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 0

2 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 15. · Salernitana 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	1	1	+19	+11.6	22
2	Milan	9	7	0	2	+7	+4.0	21
3	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+9	+7.7	20
4	Napoli	9	5	2	2	+10	+11.6	17
5	Fiorentina	9	5	2	2	+5	-1.7	17
6	Atalanta	9	5	1	3	+7	+4.9	16
7	Roma	9	4	2	3	+8	+6.3	14
8	Bologna	9	3	5	1	+3	+2.1	14
9	Lazio	9	4	1	4	+0	-0.4	13
10	Lecce	9	3	4	2	-1	-6.3	13
11	Monza	9	3	3	3	+0	+1.0	12
12	Frosinone	9	3	3	3	-1	+0.3	12
13	Sassuolo	9	3	1	5	-4	-6.1	10
14	Torino	9	2	3	4	-6	-4.7	9
15	Genoa	9	2	2	5	-4	-3.6	8
16	Verona	9	2	2	5	-5	-5.6	8
17	Empoli	9	2	1	6	-13	-4.7	7
18	Udinese	9	0	6	3	-8	-0.7	6
19	Salernitana	9	0	4	5	-13	-10.4	4
20	Cagliari	9	0	3	6	-13	-5.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	3	1	1	+9	+6.1	10
2	Roma	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.9	10
3	Atalanta	4	3	1	0	+7	+3.3	10
4	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.9	10
5	Bologna	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.8	10
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.2	10
7	Lecce	5	3	1	1	+0	-0.8	10
8	Milan	4	3	0	1	+5	+3.5	9
9	Monza	4	2	2	0	+5	+4.9	8
10	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
11	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.9	7
12	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+2	+6.3	6
13	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.2	6
14	Torino	5	1	3	1	-2	-1.4	6
15	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.0	4
16	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.8	4
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.4	4
18	Udinese	5	0	3	2	-5	+3.0	3
19	Salernitana	5	0	3	2	-7	-2.9	3
20	Cagliari	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.5	12
2	Milan	5	4	0	1	+2	+0.6	12
3	Napoli	5	3	2	0	+8	+5.3	11
4	Juventus	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.8	10
5	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+3	-3.2	10
6	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
7	Lazio	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.3	6
8	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.3	4
9	Roma	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
10	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.9	4
11	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.7	4
12	Verona	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.8	4
13	Monza	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.8	4
14	Lecce	4	0	3	1	-1	-5.5	3
15	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-3.7	3
16	Torino	4	1	0	3	-4	-3.3	3
17	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-10	-4.3	3
18	Frosinone	4	0	2	2	-3	+0.1	2
19	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.6	2
20	Salernitana	4	0	1	3	-6	-7.5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.