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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Salernitana

S U U T T

1–1

Full-time

Frosinone

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salernitana Frosinone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,16 xG 0,76

49% Possession 51%

19 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 6

4 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Salernitana 19. · Frosinone 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	4	0	0	+12	+7.1	12
2	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	+5.3	10
3	Milan	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.8	9
4	Lecce	4	2	2	0	+3	-1.8	8
5	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+3	+4.4	7
6	Frosinone	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.2	7
7	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.6	7
8	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.1	7
9	Verona	4	2	1	1	+0	-2.3	7
10	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+3	+2.3	6
11	Bologna	4	1	2	1	-1	+1.9	5
12	Roma	4	1	1	2	+5	+3.8	4
13	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
14	Monza	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.5	4
15	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.4	3
16	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-1.6	3
17	Sassuolo	4	1	0	3	-4	-4.7	3
18	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
19	Salernitana	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.9	2
20	Empoli	4	0	0	4	-12	-5.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.9	9
2	Lecce	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.6	6
3	Frosinone	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.0	6
4	Roma	3	1	1	1	+6	+3.0	4
5	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.2	4
6	Monza	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
7	Fiorentina	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
8	Verona	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
9	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
10	Milan	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
11	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
12	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+4.0	3
13	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
14	Bologna	2	1	0	1	-1	+2.0	3
15	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
16	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
17	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.4	1
18	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.0	1
19	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.2	6
2	Milan	3	2	0	1	-1	-0.8	6
3	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
4	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.4	3
6	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
7	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
8	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.6	3
9	Verona	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
10	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.3	3
11	Lecce	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.4	2
12	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
13	Udinese	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
14	Frosinone	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
15	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.4	1
16	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.5	1
17	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
18	Sassuolo	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.9	0
19	Monza	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.8	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-9	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.