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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Genoa

T U T S U

0–1

Full-time

Milan

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 58%

29%

86%

Points per game

1,1

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,56 xG 0,64

41% Possession 59%

7 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Genoa 14. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	8	6	1	1	+16	+9.5	19
2	Milan	7	6	0	1	+7	+5.1	18
3	Juventus	8	5	2	1	+8	+6.6	17
4	Napoli	7	4	2	1	+10	+10.8	14
5	Fiorentina	7	4	2	1	+5	-1.7	14
6	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+5.1	13
7	Lecce	8	3	3	2	-1	-4.6	12
8	Bologna	8	2	5	1	+2	+2.1	11
9	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	-2	-4.3	10
10	Frosinone	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.6	9
11	Monza	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.1	9
12	Torino	8	2	3	3	-3	-2.6	9
13	Roma	7	2	2	3	+4	+4.2	8
14	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	-3.2	8
15	Verona	7	2	2	3	-2	-3.7	8
16	Lazio	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.8	7
17	Udinese	8	0	5	3	-8	-2.4	5
18	Empoli	8	1	1	6	-15	-5.1	4
19	Salernitana	7	0	3	4	-10	-7.9	3
20	Cagliari	7	0	2	5	-10	-4.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	3	1	1	+9	+6.1	10
2	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.9	10
3	Lecce	5	3	1	1	+0	-0.8	10
4	Milan	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.6	9
5	Roma	4	2	1	1	+8	+2.6	7
6	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.0	7
7	Fiorentina	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.9	7
8	Bologna	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.8	7
9	Frosinone	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.7	7
10	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+4	+6.6	6
11	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.5	6
12	Torino	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.7	6
13	Monza	3	1	2	0	+2	+2.5	5
14	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
15	Genoa	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.9	4
16	Verona	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.4	4
18	Udinese	4	0	2	2	-5	+1.3	2
19	Salernitana	4	0	2	2	-7	-2.8	2
20	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+7	+3.3	9
2	Milan	4	3	0	1	+1	+0.5	9
3	Napoli	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.2	8
4	Juventus	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
5	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.5	7
6	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.1	6
7	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.3	4
8	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.3	4
9	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
10	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.9	4
11	Monza	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
12	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-3.7	3
13	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-4	-4.0	3
14	Torino	4	1	0	3	-4	-3.3	3
15	Lecce	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.8	2
16	Frosinone	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.1	2
17	Salernitana	3	0	1	2	-3	-5.1	1
18	Roma	3	0	1	2	-4	+1.6	1
19	Cagliari	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.8	1
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-12	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.