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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Atalanta

S U S S S

2–3

Full-time

Parma

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,5

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 38%

59%

16%

Points per game

2,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 57%

49%

65%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,13 xG 2,70

53% Possession 47%

11 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 10

3 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 3. · Parma 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	38	24	10	4	+32	+23.6	82
2	Inter	38	24	9	5	+44	+31.8	81
3	Atalanta	37	22	8	7	+42	+28.4	74
4	Juventus	37	17	16	4	+22	+14.8	67
5	Roma	37	19	9	9	+19	+10.2	66
6	Lazio	37	18	11	8	+13	+17.7	65
7	Milan	38	18	9	11	+18	+22.5	63
8	Fiorentina	37	18	8	11	+18	+4.4	62
9	Bologna	38	16	14	8	+10	+11.9	62
10	Como	38	13	10	15	-3	+1.2	49
11	Torino	37	10	14	13	-4	-15.0	44
12	Udinese	37	12	8	17	-14	-11.0	44
13	Genoa	38	10	13	15	-12	-9.9	43
14	Cagliari	38	9	9	20	-16	-13.8	36
15	Verona	37	9	7	21	-33	-19.6	34
16	Parma	37	6	15	16	-15	-14.2	33
17	Empoli	37	6	13	18	-25	-17.9	31
18	Lecce	37	7	10	20	-32	-21.7	31
19	Venezia	37	5	14	18	-23	-18.9	29
20	Monza	38	3	9	26	-41	-24.5	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	19	14	3	2	+19	+18.6	45
2	Inter	19	13	4	2	+19	+14.8	43
3	Roma	19	13	2	4	+22	+9.7	41
4	Juventus	19	11	7	1	+16	+10.8	40
5	Fiorentina	19	12	4	3	+14	+7.9	40
6	Bologna	19	10	7	2	+15	+14.1	37
7	Milan	19	9	7	3	+14	+11.7	34
8	Atalanta	18	9	5	4	+13	+12.7	32
9	Lazio	18	7	9	2	+8	+11.6	30
10	Como	19	8	5	6	+2	+3.2	29
11	Torino	18	6	7	5	+1	-6.1	25
12	Udinese	18	7	3	8	-4	-5.1	24
13	Cagliari	19	6	4	9	-4	-1.4	22
14	Genoa	19	5	7	7	-4	-3.1	22
15	Parma	19	5	6	8	-3	-0.9	21
16	Venezia	18	5	5	8	-4	-1.5	20
17	Lecce	19	4	6	9	-18	-8.3	18
18	Verona	19	4	5	10	-21	-5.9	17
19	Empoli	18	2	7	9	-15	-9.0	13
20	Monza	19	1	5	13	-18	-8.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	19	13	3	3	+29	+15.8	42
2	Inter	19	11	5	3	+25	+17.0	38
3	Napoli	19	10	7	2	+13	+5.0	37
4	Lazio	19	11	2	6	+5	+6.1	35
5	Milan	19	9	2	8	+4	+10.8	29
6	Juventus	18	6	9	3	+6	+4.0	27
7	Roma	18	6	7	5	-3	+0.4	25
8	Bologna	19	6	7	6	-5	-2.1	25
9	Fiorentina	18	6	4	8	+4	-3.5	22
10	Genoa	19	5	6	8	-8	-6.8	21
11	Como	19	5	5	9	-5	-2.0	20
12	Udinese	19	5	5	9	-10	-5.9	20
13	Torino	19	4	7	8	-5	-8.9	19
14	Empoli	19	4	6	9	-10	-8.9	18
15	Verona	18	5	2	11	-12	-13.7	17
16	Cagliari	19	3	5	11	-12	-12.4	14
17	Lecce	18	3	4	11	-14	-13.4	13
18	Parma	18	1	9	8	-12	-13.4	12
19	Monza	19	2	4	13	-23	-16.0	10
20	Venezia	19	0	9	10	-19	-17.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.