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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola

Villarreal

S S S S S

4–2

Full-time

Sevilla

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Sevilla

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 39%

51%

27%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

65%

38%

Both score Ø 61%

68%

54%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

1,06 xG 1,51

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Sevilla 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	37	27	4	6	+60	+45.1	85
2	Real Madrid	38	26	6	6	+40	+31.7	84
3	Ath Madrid	38	22	10	6	+38	+32.6	76
4	Ath Bilbao	37	19	13	5	+28	+17.2	70
5	Villarreal	37	19	10	8	+18	+21.4	67
6	Betis	38	16	12	10	+7	+5.0	60
7	Celta	38	16	7	15	+2	+12.2	55
8	Osasuna	38	12	16	10	-4	-8.5	52
9	Vallecano	38	13	13	12	-4	-3.9	52
10	Mallorca	38	13	9	16	-9	-8.5	48
11	Valencia	38	11	13	14	-10	-8.6	46
12	Sociedad	38	13	7	18	-11	-0.8	46
13	Getafe	38	11	9	18	-5	-7.9	42
14	Alaves	38	10	12	16	-10	-3.1	42
15	Espanol	38	11	9	18	-11	-20.2	42
16	Sevilla	37	10	11	16	-11	-5.7	41
17	Girona	38	11	8	19	-16	-7.3	41
18	Leganes	38	9	13	16	-17	-24.5	40
19	Las Palmas	38	8	8	22	-21	-32.2	32
20	Valladolid	38	4	4	30	-64	-34.0	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	19	16	1	2	+26	+27.7	49
2	Ath Madrid	19	14	4	1	+27	+27.2	46
3	Barcelona	19	14	1	4	+32	+34.3	43
4	Ath Bilbao	18	11	6	1	+22	+14.3	39
5	Celta	19	11	3	5	+11	+9.1	36
6	Osasuna	19	10	6	3	+10	+2.6	36
7	Betis	19	9	7	3	+11	+14.4	34
8	Villarreal	18	8	7	3	+14	+12.6	31
9	Valencia	19	9	4	6	+6	+4.8	31
10	Espanol	19	8	6	5	+3	-3.6	30
11	Sociedad	19	8	3	8	+0	+5.6	27
12	Mallorca	19	7	6	6	-1	-2.3	27
13	Vallecano	19	6	8	5	-2	+6.5	26
14	Leganes	19	7	4	8	-4	-8.1	25
15	Girona	19	7	3	9	-3	+2.3	24
16	Alaves	19	6	6	7	-3	+1.7	24
17	Sevilla	19	6	6	7	-6	+0.0	24
18	Getafe	19	4	7	8	-4	+1.9	19
19	Las Palmas	19	4	5	10	-8	-8.1	17
20	Valladolid	19	3	4	12	-21	-10.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	13	3	2	+28	+10.8	42
2	Villarreal	19	11	3	5	+4	+8.9	36
3	Real Madrid	19	10	5	4	+14	+4.0	35
4	Ath Bilbao	19	8	7	4	+6	+2.9	31
5	Ath Madrid	19	8	6	5	+11	+5.4	30
6	Vallecano	19	7	5	7	-2	-10.4	26
7	Betis	19	7	5	7	-4	-9.4	26
8	Getafe	19	7	2	10	-1	-9.8	23
9	Mallorca	19	6	3	10	-8	-6.2	21
10	Celta	19	5	4	10	-9	+3.1	19
11	Sociedad	19	5	4	10	-11	-6.4	19
12	Alaves	19	4	6	9	-7	-4.8	18
13	Sevilla	18	4	5	9	-5	-5.7	17
14	Girona	19	4	5	10	-13	-9.6	17
15	Osasuna	19	2	10	7	-14	-11.1	16
16	Las Palmas	19	4	3	12	-13	-24.1	15
17	Leganes	19	2	9	8	-13	-16.5	15
18	Valencia	19	2	9	8	-16	-13.4	15
19	Espanol	19	3	3	13	-14	-16.7	12
20	Valladolid	19	1	0	18	-43	-23.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.