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Serie A

Referee: Luca Zufferli

Cagliari

T U U T U

1–0

Full-time

Roma

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 42%

15%

69%

Points per game

0,8

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

38%

23%

Both score Ø 39%

54%

23%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,80 xG 0,36

47% Possession 53%

15 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

4 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Cagliari 15. · Roma 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	0	4	+19	+13.7	30
2	Milan	13	8	4	1	+10	+5.0	28
3	Napoli	13	9	1	3	+9	+4.6	28
4	Roma	13	9	0	4	+8	+2.3	27
5	Bologna	13	7	3	3	+11	+4.7	24
6	Como	14	6	6	2	+8	+4.9	24
7	Juventus	13	6	5	2	+5	+8.1	23
8	Sassuolo	14	6	2	6	+2	-4.5	20
9	Cremonese	14	5	5	4	+1	-6.7	20
10	Lazio	13	5	3	5	+5	-4.1	18
11	Udinese	13	5	3	5	-6	-2.2	18
12	Atalanta	14	3	7	4	+0	+4.3	16
13	Torino	13	3	5	5	-11	-5.0	14
14	Lecce	14	3	4	7	-9	-7.9	13
15	Cagliari	13	2	5	6	-6	-8.4	11
16	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-7	+2.0	11
17	Parma	13	2	5	6	-8	-3.7	11
18	Pisa	13	1	7	5	-8	-4.6	10
19	Verona	14	1	6	7	-10	-0.4	9
20	Fiorentina	14	0	6	8	-13	-2.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	8	6	0	2	+16	+9.8	18
2	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+7	+0.3	16
3	Milan	7	5	1	1	+4	+3.5	16
4	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
5	Juventus	7	4	3	0	+6	+6.2	15
6	Lazio	6	4	1	1	+8	+2.4	13
7	Bologna	6	4	1	1	+6	+6.2	13
8	Roma	7	4	0	3	+3	+1.4	12
9	Atalanta	7	2	4	1	+2	+5.1	10
10	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.8	10
11	Cremonese	7	2	3	2	+0	+0.4	9
12	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-4	+0.8	8
13	Torino	6	2	2	2	-5	-3.9	8
14	Verona	7	1	3	3	-1	+1.0	6
15	Lecce	7	1	3	3	-3	-2.6	6
16	Pisa	7	1	3	3	-3	-1.5	6
17	Parma	7	1	3	3	-4	-2.4	6
18	Genoa	7	1	3	3	-5	+1.8	6
19	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.6	5
20	Fiorentina	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	6	5	0	1	+5	+0.9	15
2	Milan	6	3	3	0	+6	+1.4	12
3	Inter	6	4	0	2	+3	+3.8	12
4	Napoli	7	4	0	3	+2	+4.4	12
5	Bologna	7	3	2	2	+5	-1.6	11
6	Cremonese	7	3	2	2	+1	-7.2	11
7	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	-2.7	10
8	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-2	-3.0	10
9	Como	7	2	3	2	+0	+1.5	9
10	Juventus	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.0	8
11	Lecce	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.3	7
12	Atalanta	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.7	6
13	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-3	-3.9	6
14	Torino	7	1	3	3	-6	-1.1	6
15	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.3	5
16	Lazio	7	1	2	4	-3	-6.5	5
17	Parma	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.3	5
18	Pisa	6	0	4	2	-5	-3.1	4
19	Fiorentina	8	0	4	4	-8	-2.0	4
20	Verona	7	0	3	4	-9	-1.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.