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Serie A

Referee: Michael Fabbri

Genoa

T T S U U

2–1

Full-time

Verona

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Verona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 4%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

0,9

0,6

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,75 xG 2,28

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

4 Offside 5

9 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 18. · Verona 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	12	9	0	3	+9	+2.9	27
2	Milan	12	7	4	1	+9	+4.2	25
3	Napoli	12	8	1	3	+8	+4.0	25
4	Inter	12	8	0	4	+13	+13.0	24
5	Bologna	12	7	3	2	+13	+4.1	24
6	Como	13	6	6	1	+12	+5.3	24
7	Juventus	12	5	5	2	+4	+7.0	20
8	Lazio	12	5	3	4	+6	-3.3	18
9	Sassuolo	13	5	2	6	+0	-4.3	17
10	Udinese	12	4	3	5	-8	-3.0	15
11	Cremonese	12	3	5	4	-3	-7.3	14
12	Torino	12	3	5	4	-10	-5.7	14
13	Atalanta	12	2	7	3	+0	+3.8	13
14	Cagliari	12	2	5	5	-5	-7.3	11
15	Parma	12	2	5	5	-6	-2.9	11
16	Pisa	12	1	7	4	-6	-4.3	10
17	Lecce	12	2	4	6	-8	-6.0	10
18	Genoa	12	1	5	6	-8	+2.6	8
19	Fiorentina	12	0	6	6	-9	-2.3	6
20	Verona	12	0	6	6	-11	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+7	+0.3	16
2	Inter	7	5	0	2	+12	+9.4	15
3	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
4	Lazio	6	4	1	1	+8	+2.4	13
5	Bologna	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.6	13
6	Milan	6	4	1	1	+3	+2.7	13
7	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+5	+5.0	12
8	Roma	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.0	12
9	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-4	+0.8	8
10	Torino	6	2	2	2	-5	-3.9	8
11	Atalanta	6	1	4	1	+0	+5.0	7
12	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-1	-1.6	7
13	Pisa	6	1	3	2	-1	-1.3	6
14	Cremonese	6	1	3	2	-2	-0.7	6
15	Parma	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.6	6
16	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.6	5
17	Verona	6	0	3	3	-3	+1.4	3
18	Lecce	6	0	3	3	-4	-1.9	3
19	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-6	+2.3	3
20	Fiorentina	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	6	5	0	1	+5	+0.9	15
2	Milan	6	3	3	0	+6	+1.4	12
3	Bologna	7	3	2	2	+5	-1.6	11
4	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	-2.7	10
5	Como	6	2	3	1	+4	+1.9	9
6	Inter	5	3	0	2	+1	+3.6	9
7	Napoli	6	3	0	3	+1	+3.7	9
8	Cremonese	6	2	2	2	-1	-6.6	8
9	Juventus	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.0	8
10	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-4	-3.8	7
11	Lecce	6	2	1	3	-4	-4.1	7
12	Atalanta	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.2	6
13	Cagliari	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.7	6
14	Torino	6	1	3	2	-5	-1.9	6
15	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.3	5
16	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-2	-5.7	5
17	Parma	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.3	5
18	Fiorentina	6	0	4	2	-4	-2.2	4
19	Pisa	6	0	4	2	-5	-3.1	4
20	Verona	6	0	3	3	-8	-1.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.