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Serie A

Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi

Lecce

S T S T U

0–2

Full-time

Roma

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 43%

24%

61%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

35%

28%

Both score Ø 32%

35%

28%

Average goals

2,1

1,8

Scored

0,7

1,1

Conceded

1,4

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,55 xG 1,33

51% Possession 49%

6 Shots 10

1 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 16. · Roma 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	13	0	4	+23	+16.4	39
2	Milan	17	11	5	1	+15	+8.3	38
3	Napoli	17	12	1	4	+13	+9.2	37
4	Como	18	9	6	3	+14	+7.0	33
5	Juventus	18	9	6	3	+8	+12.6	33
6	Roma	18	11	0	7	+8	-0.1	33
7	Bologna	17	7	5	5	+8	+0.6	26
8	Atalanta	18	6	7	5	+2	+7.7	25
9	Lazio	18	6	6	6	+4	-5.8	24
10	Sassuolo	18	6	5	7	+1	-5.8	23
11	Torino	18	6	5	7	-8	-1.8	23
12	Udinese	18	6	4	8	-11	-6.1	22
13	Cremonese	18	5	6	7	-3	-10.2	21
14	Cagliari	18	4	6	8	-6	-11.2	18
15	Parma	17	4	6	7	-7	-4.2	18
16	Lecce	17	4	5	8	-11	-9.3	17
17	Genoa	18	3	6	9	-10	+0.8	15
18	Fiorentina	18	2	6	10	-10	+2.9	12
19	Verona	17	2	6	9	-15	-4.6	12
20	Pisa	19	1	9	9	-15	-6.3	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	0	2	+18	+11.9	21
2	Milan	9	6	2	1	+7	+5.9	20
3	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+8	+1.6	19
4	Juventus	9	5	4	0	+7	+9.8	19
5	Como	8	5	3	0	+9	+5.1	18
6	Roma	9	6	0	3	+6	+2.6	18
7	Atalanta	10	4	4	2	+3	+7.8	16
8	Lazio	9	4	3	2	+6	+0.7	15
9	Bologna	8	4	2	2	+5	+4.3	14
10	Udinese	9	3	3	3	-4	+1.1	12
11	Sassuolo	9	3	2	4	+0	-3.4	11
12	Torino	9	3	2	4	-6	-3.3	11
13	Cremonese	8	2	3	3	-2	-1.6	9
14	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-4.6	9
15	Parma	9	2	3	4	-4	-2.9	9
16	Lecce	9	2	3	4	-5	-1.5	9
17	Fiorentina	9	2	2	5	-1	+4.6	8
18	Genoa	10	1	4	5	-7	+0.8	7
19	Verona	8	1	3	4	-4	-0.4	6
20	Pisa	10	1	3	6	-9	-2.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	8	5	3	0	+8	+2.4	18
2	Inter	8	6	0	2	+5	+4.5	18
3	Napoli	10	6	0	4	+5	+7.6	18
4	Como	10	4	3	3	+5	+1.9	15
5	Roma	9	5	0	4	+2	-2.7	15
6	Juventus	9	4	2	3	+1	+2.8	14
7	Bologna	9	3	3	3	+3	-3.7	12
8	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	-2.4	12
9	Cremonese	10	3	3	4	-1	-8.6	12
10	Torino	9	3	3	3	-2	+1.6	12
11	Udinese	9	3	1	5	-7	-7.2	10
12	Atalanta	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.1	9
13	Lazio	9	2	3	4	-2	-6.5	9
14	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-6.6	9
15	Parma	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.3	9
16	Genoa	8	2	2	4	-3	+0.0	8
17	Lecce	8	2	2	4	-6	-7.8	8
18	Pisa	9	0	6	3	-6	-3.8	6
19	Verona	9	1	3	5	-11	-4.2	6
20	Fiorentina	9	0	4	5	-9	-1.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.