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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Roma

S S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Lecce

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

0,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

40%

30%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

60%

30%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,12 xG 0,84

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 10. · Lecce 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	1	1	+21	+14.1	28
2	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+10	+10.7	23
3	Milan	11	7	1	3	+6	+3.7	22
4	Napoli	11	6	3	2	+12	+12.5	21
5	Atalanta	11	6	1	4	+9	+5.8	19
6	Bologna	11	4	6	1	+4	+2.3	18
7	Fiorentina	10	5	2	3	+4	-3.3	17
8	Monza	11	4	4	3	+2	+0.3	16
9	Lazio	11	5	1	5	+0	+1.1	16
10	Roma	10	4	2	4	+7	+4.2	14
11	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-2	-6.6	13
12	Frosinone	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.9	12
13	Torino	10	3	3	4	-5	-4.4	12
14	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-4	-6.2	11
15	Genoa	11	3	2	6	-4	-3.6	11
16	Udinese	11	1	7	3	-7	+0.5	10
17	Cagliari	11	2	3	6	-11	-3.2	9
18	Verona	11	2	2	7	-8	-8.6	8
19	Empoli	10	2	1	7	-16	-6.0	7
20	Salernitana	11	0	4	7	-16	-11.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	1	1	+10	+8.3	13
2	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.9	13
3	Bologna	6	4	1	1	+4	+1.8	13
4	Roma	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.9	10
5	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+6	+3.0	10
6	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.5	10
7	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.2	10
8	Lecce	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.1	10
9	Monza	5	2	3	0	+5	+4.3	9
10	Milan	5	3	0	2	+4	+2.9	9
11	Napoli	5	2	1	2	+2	+6.1	7
12	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
13	Genoa	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.1	7
14	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-1	-1.4	7
15	Cagliari	6	2	1	3	-5	+0.4	7
16	Torino	5	1	3	1	-2	-1.4	6
17	Verona	5	1	1	3	-4	-2.7	4
18	Empoli	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.7	4
19	Udinese	5	0	3	2	-5	+3.0	3
20	Salernitana	6	0	3	3	-9	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	5	0	0	+11	+5.8	15
2	Napoli	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.4	14
3	Milan	6	4	1	1	+2	+0.8	13
4	Juventus	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.8	10
5	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+2	-4.8	10
6	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	+3	+2.9	9
7	Udinese	6	1	4	1	-2	-2.5	7
8	Monza	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.0	7
9	Lazio	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.4	6
10	Torino	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.0	6
11	Bologna	5	0	5	0	+0	+0.4	5
12	Roma	5	1	1	3	-2	+0.3	4
13	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.9	4
14	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-4	-2.5	4
15	Verona	6	1	1	4	-4	-5.9	4
16	Lecce	4	0	3	1	-1	-5.5	3
17	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-10	-4.3	3
18	Frosinone	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.1	2
19	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.6	2
20	Salernitana	5	0	1	4	-7	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.