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Serie A

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

Milan

T S U S S

1–1

Full-time

Genoa

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 41%

65%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

61%

Both score Ø 57%

47%

67%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,45 xG 1,32

61% Possession 39%

32 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 2

15 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

12 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Genoa 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	0	4	+25	+18.6	42
2	Milan	17	11	5	1	+15	+8.3	38
3	Napoli	18	12	2	4	+13	+8.6	38
4	Juventus	19	10	6	3	+11	+15.0	36
5	Roma	19	12	0	7	+10	+0.7	36
6	Como	18	9	6	3	+14	+7.0	33
7	Atalanta	19	7	7	5	+4	+8.0	28
8	Bologna	18	7	5	6	+6	+0.3	26
9	Lazio	19	6	7	6	+4	-4.7	25
10	Udinese	19	7	4	8	-10	-5.0	25
11	Sassuolo	19	6	5	8	-2	-8.1	23
12	Torino	19	6	5	8	-9	-2.8	23
13	Cremonese	19	5	7	7	-3	-10.2	22
14	Cagliari	19	4	7	8	-6	-11.2	19
15	Parma	18	4	6	8	-9	-6.5	18
16	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-13	-10.1	17
17	Genoa	18	3	6	9	-10	+0.8	15
18	Fiorentina	19	2	7	10	-10	+1.8	13
19	Verona	18	2	7	9	-15	-4.0	13
20	Pisa	19	1	9	9	-15	-6.3	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	0	2	+18	+11.9	21
2	Napoli	8	6	2	0	+8	+1.0	20
3	Milan	9	6	2	1	+7	+5.9	20
4	Juventus	9	5	4	0	+7	+9.8	19
5	Como	8	5	3	0	+9	+5.1	18
6	Roma	9	6	0	3	+6	+2.6	18
7	Lazio	10	4	4	2	+6	+1.8	16
8	Atalanta	10	4	4	2	+3	+7.8	16
9	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+3	+4.1	14
10	Udinese	9	3	3	3	-4	+1.1	12
11	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.8	11
12	Torino	10	3	2	5	-7	-4.4	11
13	Cremonese	9	2	4	3	-2	-1.6	10
14	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-4.6	9
15	Parma	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.2	9
16	Lecce	10	2	3	5	-7	-2.3	9
17	Fiorentina	9	2	2	5	-1	+4.6	8
18	Genoa	10	1	4	5	-7	+0.8	7
19	Verona	8	1	3	4	-4	-0.4	6
20	Pisa	10	1	3	6	-9	-2.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	0	2	+7	+6.7	21
2	Milan	8	5	3	0	+8	+2.4	18
3	Napoli	10	6	0	4	+5	+7.6	18
4	Roma	10	6	0	4	+4	-2.0	18
5	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+4	+5.2	17
6	Como	10	4	3	3	+5	+1.9	15
7	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-6	-6.2	13
8	Bologna	9	3	3	3	+3	-3.7	12
9	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	-2.4	12
10	Atalanta	9	3	3	3	+1	+0.2	12
11	Cremonese	10	3	3	4	-1	-8.6	12
12	Torino	9	3	3	3	-2	+1.6	12
13	Cagliari	10	2	4	4	-3	-6.6	10
14	Lazio	9	2	3	4	-2	-6.5	9
15	Parma	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.3	9
16	Genoa	8	2	2	4	-3	+0.0	8
17	Lecce	8	2	2	4	-6	-7.8	8
18	Verona	10	1	4	5	-11	-3.6	7
19	Pisa	9	0	6	3	-6	-3.8	6
20	Fiorentina	10	0	5	5	-9	-2.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.