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Serie A

Referee: J L Sacchi

Cagliari

T T T S T

3–2

Full-time

Atalanta

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 33%

24%

42%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

48%

36%

Both score Ø 50%

48%

52%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,56 xG 1,18

27% Possession 73%

9 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 16. · Atalanta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	34	25	4	5	+49	+33.3	79
2	Napoli	34	21	6	7	+19	+12.8	69
3	Milan	34	19	10	5	+21	+17.5	67
4	Juventus	34	18	10	6	+28	+29.6	64
5	Como	34	17	10	7	+31	+23.4	61
6	Roma	34	19	4	11	+19	+8.7	61
7	Atalanta	33	14	12	7	+16	+14.4	54
8	Bologna	34	14	6	14	+1	-0.7	48
9	Lazio	33	12	11	10	+4	-4.3	47
10	Sassuolo	34	13	7	14	-3	-14.5	46
11	Udinese	33	12	7	14	-5	-10.7	43
12	Parma	34	10	12	12	-15	-18.9	42
13	Torino	34	11	8	15	-17	-6.6	41
14	Genoa	34	10	9	15	-8	-0.1	39
15	Fiorentina	34	8	13	13	-7	+6.4	37
16	Cagliari	33	8	9	16	-14	-16.1	33
17	Lecce	34	7	8	19	-24	-23.4	29
18	Cremonese	34	6	10	18	-25	-22.2	28
19	Verona	34	3	10	21	-33	-8.7	19
20	Pisa	34	2	12	20	-37	-19.8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	13	2	2	+32	+24.3	41
2	Napoli	17	12	4	1	+15	+2.8	40
3	Juventus	17	10	6	1	+21	+19.9	36
4	Roma	17	11	3	3	+17	+10.1	36
5	Como	17	9	5	3	+19	+18.8	32
6	Atalanta	17	9	5	3	+11	+15.1	32
7	Milan	17	9	5	3	+6	+10.6	32
8	Lazio	16	7	5	4	+4	+0.6	26
9	Sassuolo	17	8	2	7	-2	-8.3	26
10	Torino	17	7	3	7	-3	-3.5	24
11	Genoa	18	6	4	8	-3	+2.8	22
12	Udinese	17	5	5	7	-4	-2.2	20
13	Bologna	17	6	2	9	-4	+2.5	20
14	Fiorentina	17	4	7	6	+0	+9.9	19
15	Cagliari	16	5	4	7	-1	-5.4	19
16	Parma	17	4	6	7	-9	-9.3	18
17	Lecce	17	4	5	8	-11	-5.7	17
18	Cremonese	16	2	7	7	-10	-3.7	13
19	Pisa	17	2	4	11	-13	-6.1	10
20	Verona	17	1	5	11	-13	-2.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	12	2	3	+17	+9.0	38
2	Milan	17	10	5	2	+15	+6.9	35
3	Como	17	8	5	4	+12	+4.6	29
4	Napoli	17	9	2	6	+4	+10.0	29
5	Juventus	17	8	4	5	+7	+9.7	28
6	Bologna	17	8	4	5	+5	-3.2	28
7	Roma	17	8	1	8	+2	-1.4	25
8	Parma	17	6	6	5	-6	-9.7	24
9	Udinese	16	7	2	7	-1	-8.6	23
10	Atalanta	16	5	7	4	+5	-0.7	22
11	Lazio	17	5	6	6	+0	-4.9	21
12	Sassuolo	17	5	5	7	-1	-6.2	20
13	Fiorentina	17	4	6	7	-7	-3.5	18
14	Genoa	16	4	5	7	-5	-2.8	17
15	Torino	17	4	5	8	-14	-3.1	17
16	Cremonese	18	4	3	11	-15	-18.5	15
17	Cagliari	17	3	5	9	-13	-10.7	14
18	Lecce	17	3	3	11	-13	-17.7	12
19	Verona	17	2	5	10	-20	-6.2	11
20	Pisa	17	0	8	9	-24	-13.7	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.