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Coppa Italia

Referee: A Colombo

Atalanta

T S S T U

1–1

Full-time

Lazio

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Coppa Italia · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

3,0

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

29 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 1

14 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 4. · Lazio 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Como	6	3	2	1	+6	11
2	Inter	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Torino	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+7	7
5	Milan	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Cagliari	3	1	2	0	+3	5
9	Lazio	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Virtus Entella	2	1	1	0	+4	4
11	Parma	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Bologna	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Audace Cerignola	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Venezia	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Juventus	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Vicenza	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Pescara	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-2	3
20	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	-2	3
21	Spezia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
22	Napoli	2	0	2	0	+0	2
23	Verona	2	0	2	0	+0	2
24	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Reggiana	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Cremonese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Cesena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Palermo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
29	Pisa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
30	Empoli	2	0	1	1	-2	1
31	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Rimini	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Avellino	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Carrarese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Bari	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Mantova	1	0	0	1	-4	0
44	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Como	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Atalanta	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Torino	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Parma	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Lazio	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Bologna	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Audace Cerignola	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Venezia	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Virtus Entella	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Pescara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Napoli	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Verona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Cremonese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Cesena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Como	3	1	1	1	+1	4
2	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
3	Vicenza	2	1	0	1	-1	3
4	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-2	3
5	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Atalanta	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Lazio	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Reggiana	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Verona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Inter	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Palermo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Pisa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Venezia	2	0	1	1	-4	1
17	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Rimini	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Avellino	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Carrarese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Bari	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	Juventus	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	Mantova	1	0	0	1	-4	0
35	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.