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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Cagliari

T U U T T

0–1

Full-time

Napoli

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 43%

24%

62%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

48%

59%

Both score Ø 54%

52%

55%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,33 xG 1,74

33% Possession 67%

7 Shots 17

0 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 15. · Napoli 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	29	22	2	5	+42	+35.0	68
2	Milan	29	17	9	3	+23	+17.6	60
3	Napoli	29	18	5	6	+15	+9.1	59
4	Como	29	15	9	5	+26	+20.8	54
5	Juventus	29	15	8	6	+23	+27.7	53
6	Roma	29	16	3	10	+16	+7.2	51
7	Atalanta	29	12	11	6	+13	+11.4	47
8	Bologna	29	12	6	11	+4	+0.3	42
9	Lazio	29	10	10	9	+1	-7.1	40
10	Sassuolo	29	11	5	13	-4	-11.6	38
11	Udinese	29	10	6	13	-9	-10.1	36
12	Parma	29	8	10	11	-15	-17.4	34
13	Genoa	29	8	9	12	-4	+0.6	33
14	Torino	29	9	6	14	-18	-9.1	33
15	Cagliari	29	7	9	13	-10	-14.9	30
16	Fiorentina	29	6	10	13	-9	+5.8	28
17	Lecce	29	7	6	16	-18	-19.9	27
18	Cremonese	29	5	9	15	-21	-19.6	24
19	Pisa	29	2	12	15	-26	-16.6	18
20	Verona	29	3	9	17	-29	-9.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	2	2	+26	+21.9	35
2	Napoli	14	10	4	0	+12	+1.5	34
3	Juventus	14	8	5	1	+17	+16.8	29
4	Como	15	8	5	2	+15	+15.6	29
5	Roma	14	9	2	3	+13	+9.7	29
6	Atalanta	15	8	5	2	+11	+14.1	29
7	Milan	14	8	4	2	+8	+10.6	28
8	Lazio	15	7	4	4	+4	+0.5	25
9	Torino	15	6	2	7	-4	-4.2	20
10	Sassuolo	15	6	2	7	-4	-8.0	20
11	Genoa	15	5	4	6	+0	+3.1	19
12	Udinese	15	5	4	6	-3	-2.3	19
13	Bologna	14	5	2	7	-2	+2.5	17
14	Cagliari	14	4	4	6	-1	-4.9	16
15	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-3.5	16
16	Fiorentina	14	3	5	6	-1	+8.6	14
17	Parma	14	3	5	6	-8	-7.7	14
18	Cremonese	14	2	6	6	-9	-4.5	12
19	Pisa	15	2	4	9	-11	-4.1	10
20	Verona	14	1	4	9	-11	-2.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	11	0	3	+16	+13.1	33
2	Milan	15	9	5	1	+15	+7.0	32
3	Como	14	7	4	3	+11	+5.2	25
4	Bologna	15	7	4	4	+6	-2.2	25
5	Napoli	15	8	1	6	+3	+7.5	25
6	Juventus	15	7	3	5	+6	+10.9	24
7	Roma	15	7	1	7	+3	-2.5	22
8	Parma	15	5	5	5	-7	-9.7	20
9	Atalanta	14	4	6	4	+2	-2.7	18
10	Sassuolo	14	5	3	6	+0	-3.6	18
11	Udinese	14	5	2	7	-6	-7.8	17
12	Lazio	14	3	6	5	-3	-7.6	15
13	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-4	-2.5	14
14	Fiorentina	15	3	5	7	-8	-2.7	14
15	Cagliari	15	3	5	7	-9	-10.0	14
16	Torino	14	3	4	7	-14	-4.9	13
17	Cremonese	15	3	3	9	-12	-15.1	12
18	Lecce	14	3	2	9	-10	-16.4	11
19	Verona	15	2	5	8	-18	-6.4	11
20	Pisa	14	0	8	6	-15	-12.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.