Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Leicester
Crystal Palace
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
|
20 | 14 | 5 | 1 | +28 | +28.8 | 47 |
| 2 |
Nott'm Forest
|
21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | +10 | +2.4 | 41 |
| 3 |
Arsenal
|
20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | +21 | +16.9 | 40 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
|
21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | +15 | +12.6 | 37 |
| 5 |
Newcastle
|
20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | +12 | +11.3 | 35 |
| 6 |
Man City
|
21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | +9 | +7.3 | 35 |
| 7 |
Bournemouth
|
21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +7 | +13.5 | 34 |
| 8 |
Aston Villa
|
20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | -2 | +6.7 | 32 |
| 9 |
Fulham
|
21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | +2 | +3.3 | 30 |
| 10 |
Brentford
|
21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | +3 | -0.1 | 28 |
| 11 |
Brighton
|
20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | +1 | -2.3 | 28 |
| 12 |
West Ham
|
21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -14 | -8.1 | 26 |
| 13 |
Tottenham
|
20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | +12 | +2.3 | 24 |
| 14 |
Man United
|
20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -5 | -2.5 | 23 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
20 | 4 | 9 | 7 | -7 | -1.6 | 21 |
| 16 |
Everton
|
19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -10 | -8.4 | 17 |
| 17 |
Wolves
|
20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -14 | -11.9 | 16 |
| 18 |
Ipswich
|
20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -15 | -22.3 | 16 |
| 19 |
Leicester
|
20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -21 | -20.9 | 14 |
| 20 |
Southampton
|
20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | -32 | -27.2 | 6 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
J. Justin
D
H. Winks
M
F. Buonanotte
M
B. El Khannouss
M
S. Mavididi
M
J. Vardy
F
Coach: R. van Nistelrooij
D. Henderson
G
C. Richards
D
M. Lacroix
D
M. Guéhi
D
D. Muñoz
M
W. Hughes
M
J. Lerma
M
T. Mitchell
M
I. Sarr
F
E. Eze
F
J. Mateta
F
Coach: O. Glasner
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Leicester
QPR
Aston Villa
Leicester
Leicester
Man City
Liverpool
Leicester
Leicester
Wolves
A Madley · 167 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.