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Premier League

Referee: D Bond

Liverpool

U S U S S

3–1

Full-time

Leicester

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,8

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

2,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 47%

75%

18%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

63%

76%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

76%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,91 xG 0,34

69% Possession 31%

19 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

14 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 5

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Leicester 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	12	3	1	+21	+21.0	39
2	Chelsea	18	10	5	3	+17	+10.7	35
3	Nott'm Forest	18	10	4	4	+5	+2.9	34
4	Arsenal	17	9	6	2	+18	+14.3	33
5	Newcastle	18	8	5	5	+9	+8.8	29
6	Bournemouth	18	8	5	5	+6	+12.8	29
7	Man City	18	8	4	6	+4	+7.2	28
8	Fulham	18	7	7	4	+3	+2.6	28
9	Aston Villa	18	8	4	6	-3	+4.9	28
10	Brighton	17	6	7	4	+1	-2.5	25
11	Tottenham	18	7	2	9	+13	+2.3	23
12	Brentford	17	7	2	8	+0	-2.8	23
13	West Ham	18	6	5	7	-7	-3.8	23
14	Man United	18	6	4	8	-3	+0.3	22
15	Everton	17	3	8	6	-7	-6.6	17
16	Crystal Palace	18	3	8	7	-8	-2.5	17
17	Wolves	18	4	3	11	-11	-9.9	15
18	Leicester	17	3	5	9	-16	-18.2	14
19	Ipswich	17	2	6	9	-16	-19.5	12
20	Southampton	18	1	3	14	-26	-21.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	9	7	1	1	+10	+6.8	22
2	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+10	+9.6	19
3	Arsenal	8	5	3	0	+11	+11.5	18
4	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+5	+10.1	18
5	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+7	+7.0	17
6	Man City	9	5	2	2	+4	+9.0	17
7	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+4	+4.3	17
8	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+4	+6.9	15
9	Bournemouth	9	4	3	2	+4	+8.5	15
10	Fulham	9	4	3	2	+1	+1.2	15
11	Tottenham	9	4	1	4	+6	+0.7	13
12	Brighton	8	3	4	1	+1	+1.3	13
13	Man United	9	4	1	4	-1	+1.3	13
14	West Ham	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.9	11
15	Everton	8	2	4	2	+1	-2.9	10
16	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-4	-7.9	9
17	Wolves	9	2	1	6	-6	-5.3	7
18	Crystal Palace	9	1	4	4	-8	-0.1	7
19	Ipswich	9	0	4	5	-10	-7.3	4
20	Southampton	9	1	1	7	-15	-12.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	6	2	1	+13	+3.8	20
2	Liverpool	8	6	2	0	+11	+11.3	20
3	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+1	-1.4	17
4	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+7	+2.7	15
5	Bournemouth	9	4	2	3	+2	+4.3	14
6	Fulham	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.4	13
7	Newcastle	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
8	Brighton	9	3	3	3	+0	-3.9	12
9	West Ham	9	3	3	3	-3	-1.9	12
10	Man City	9	3	2	4	+0	-1.8	11
11	Tottenham	9	3	1	5	+7	+1.6	10
12	Crystal Palace	9	2	4	3	+0	-2.4	10
13	Aston Villa	9	3	1	5	-8	-5.2	10
14	Man United	9	2	3	4	-2	-1.0	9
15	Wolves	9	2	2	5	-5	-4.6	8
16	Ipswich	8	2	2	4	-6	-12.2	8
17	Everton	9	1	4	4	-8	-3.7	7
18	Leicester	8	1	2	5	-12	-10.2	5
19	Southampton	9	0	2	7	-11	-9.2	2
20	Brentford	8	0	1	7	-10	-9.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.