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Premier League

Referee: M Salisbury

Crystal Palace

U S T T U

2–1

Full-time

Southampton

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

0,3

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 12%

17%

Points per game

0,9

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,0

0,6

Conceded

1,4

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,03 xG 0,94

46% Possession 54%

19 Shots 7

10 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crystal Palace 16. · Southampton 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	3	1	+23	+22.5	42
2	Arsenal	18	10	6	2	+19	+16.0	36
3	Chelsea	18	10	5	3	+17	+10.7	35
4	Nott'm Forest	18	10	4	4	+5	+2.9	34
5	Man City	19	9	4	6	+6	+7.1	31
6	Newcastle	18	8	5	5	+9	+8.8	29
7	Bournemouth	18	8	5	5	+6	+12.8	29
8	Fulham	18	7	7	4	+3	+2.6	28
9	Aston Villa	18	8	4	6	-3	+4.9	28
10	Brighton	18	6	8	4	+1	-2.3	26
11	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+0	-3.0	24
12	Tottenham	18	7	2	9	+13	+2.3	23
13	West Ham	18	6	5	7	-7	-3.8	23
14	Man United	18	6	4	8	-3	+0.3	22
15	Everton	17	3	8	6	-7	-6.6	17
16	Crystal Palace	18	3	8	7	-8	-2.5	17
17	Wolves	18	4	3	11	-11	-9.9	15
18	Leicester	19	3	5	11	-20	-19.7	14
19	Ipswich	18	2	6	10	-17	-21.2	12
20	Southampton	18	1	3	14	-26	-21.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	1	1	+12	+11.2	22
2	Brentford	9	7	1	1	+10	+6.8	22
3	Arsenal	9	6	3	0	+12	+13.2	21
4	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+5	+10.1	18
5	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+7	+7.0	17
6	Man City	9	5	2	2	+4	+9.0	17
7	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+4	+4.3	17
8	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+4	+6.9	15
9	Bournemouth	9	4	3	2	+4	+8.5	15
10	Fulham	9	4	3	2	+1	+1.2	15
11	Brighton	9	3	5	1	+1	+1.6	14
12	Tottenham	9	4	1	4	+6	+0.7	13
13	Man United	9	4	1	4	-1	+1.3	13
14	West Ham	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.9	11
15	Everton	8	2	4	2	+1	-2.9	10
16	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-6	-7.9	9
17	Wolves	9	2	1	6	-6	-5.3	7
18	Crystal Palace	9	1	4	4	-8	-0.1	7
19	Ipswich	9	0	4	5	-10	-7.3	4
20	Southampton	9	1	1	7	-15	-12.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	6	2	1	+13	+3.8	20
2	Liverpool	8	6	2	0	+11	+11.3	20
3	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+1	-1.4	17
4	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+7	+2.7	15
5	Bournemouth	9	4	2	3	+2	+4.3	14
6	Man City	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.8	14
7	Fulham	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.4	13
8	Newcastle	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
9	Brighton	9	3	3	3	+0	-3.9	12
10	West Ham	9	3	3	3	-3	-1.9	12
11	Tottenham	9	3	1	5	+7	+1.6	10
12	Crystal Palace	9	2	4	3	+0	-2.4	10
13	Aston Villa	9	3	1	5	-8	-5.2	10
14	Man United	9	2	3	4	-2	-1.0	9
15	Wolves	9	2	2	5	-5	-4.6	8
16	Ipswich	9	2	2	5	-7	-13.9	8
17	Everton	9	1	4	4	-8	-3.7	7
18	Leicester	9	1	2	6	-14	-11.8	5
19	Brentford	9	0	2	7	-10	-9.8	2
20	Southampton	9	0	2	7	-11	-9.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.