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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Aston Villa

S T S T U

2–1

Full-time

Leicester

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

42%

16%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

74%

Both score Ø 71%

68%

74%

Average goals

3,1

3,4

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,6

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,56 xG 0,41

61% Possession 39%

13 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 9. · Leicester 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	3	1	+28	+25.3	45
2	Arsenal	19	11	6	2	+21	+17.5	39
3	Nott'm Forest	19	11	4	4	+7	+3.5	37
4	Chelsea	19	10	5	4	+15	+11.1	35
5	Newcastle	20	10	5	5	+12	+11.3	35
6	Man City	19	9	4	6	+6	+7.1	31
7	Bournemouth	19	8	6	5	+6	+13.7	30
8	Fulham	19	7	8	4	+3	+1.8	29
9	Aston Villa	19	8	5	6	-3	+5.5	29
10	Brighton	19	6	9	4	+1	-2.9	27
11	Tottenham	20	7	3	10	+12	+2.3	24
12	Brentford	19	7	3	9	-2	-4.6	24
13	West Ham	19	6	5	8	-12	-6.6	23
14	Man United	19	6	4	9	-5	-0.7	22
15	Crystal Palace	19	4	8	7	-7	-1.4	20
16	Everton	18	3	8	7	-9	-7.2	17
17	Wolves	19	4	4	11	-11	-11.4	16
18	Ipswich	19	3	6	10	-15	-21.6	15
19	Leicester	19	3	5	11	-20	-19.7	14
20	Southampton	19	1	3	15	-27	-23.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	1	1	+12	+11.2	22
2	Brentford	10	7	1	2	+8	+5.2	22
3	Arsenal	9	6	3	0	+12	+13.2	21
4	Aston Villa	10	5	4	1	+5	+10.8	19
5	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+7	+7.0	17
6	Man City	9	5	2	2	+4	+9.0	17
7	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+4	+4.3	17
8	Fulham	10	4	4	2	+1	+0.4	16
9	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+4	+6.9	15
10	Bournemouth	9	4	3	2	+4	+8.5	15
11	Tottenham	11	4	2	5	+5	+0.7	14
12	Brighton	9	3	5	1	+1	+1.6	14
13	Man United	10	4	1	5	-3	+0.3	13
14	West Ham	10	3	2	5	-9	-4.7	11
15	Everton	9	2	4	3	-1	-3.5	10
16	Crystal Palace	10	2	4	4	-7	+1.0	10
17	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-6	-7.9	9
18	Wolves	9	2	1	6	-6	-5.3	7
19	Ipswich	10	1	4	5	-8	-7.7	7
20	Southampton	9	1	1	7	-15	-12.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+16	+14.1	23
2	Chelsea	10	6	2	2	+11	+4.2	20
3	Nott'm Forest	10	6	2	2	+3	-0.8	20
4	Arsenal	10	5	3	2	+9	+4.3	18
5	Newcastle	11	5	3	3	+5	+4.3	18
6	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	+5.2	15
7	Man City	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.8	14
8	Fulham	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.4	13
9	Brighton	10	3	4	3	+0	-4.5	13
10	West Ham	9	3	3	3	-3	-1.9	12
11	Tottenham	9	3	1	5	+7	+1.6	10
12	Crystal Palace	9	2	4	3	+0	-2.4	10
13	Aston Villa	9	3	1	5	-8	-5.2	10
14	Man United	9	2	3	4	-2	-1.0	9
15	Wolves	10	2	3	5	-5	-6.1	9
16	Ipswich	9	2	2	5	-7	-13.9	8
17	Everton	9	1	4	4	-8	-3.7	7
18	Leicester	9	1	2	6	-14	-11.8	5
19	Brentford	9	0	2	7	-10	-9.8	2
20	Southampton	10	0	2	8	-12	-10.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.