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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Brighton

S S T T S

3–0

Full-time

Chelsea

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,5

3,8

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

63%

Both score Ø 73%

71%

75%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,42 xG 0,54

31% Possession 69%

13 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 9

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 10. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	24	17	6	1	+35	+33.6	57
2	Arsenal	24	14	8	2	+27	+18.3	50
3	Nott'm Forest	24	14	5	5	+13	+5.3	47
4	Chelsea	24	12	7	5	+16	+14.7	43
5	Man City	24	12	5	7	+13	+10.3	41
6	Newcastle	24	12	5	7	+13	+11.7	41
7	Bournemouth	24	11	7	6	+13	+14.7	40
8	Aston Villa	24	10	7	7	-3	+4.8	37
9	Fulham	24	9	9	6	+4	+6.3	36
10	Brighton	24	8	10	6	-3	-3.8	34
11	Brentford	24	9	4	11	+0	-1.2	31
12	Crystal Palace	24	7	9	8	-2	+0.6	30
13	Man United	24	8	5	11	-6	-3.0	29
14	Tottenham	24	8	3	13	+11	-0.9	27
15	Everton	24	6	9	9	-5	-5.0	27
16	West Ham	24	7	6	11	-17	-9.1	27
17	Wolves	24	5	4	15	-18	-13.8	19
18	Leicester	24	4	5	15	-28	-24.3	17
19	Ipswich	24	3	7	14	-27	-26.4	16
20	Southampton	24	2	3	19	-36	-32.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	12	8	4	0	+17	+14.4	28
2	Liverpool	11	8	2	1	+15	+14.5	26
3	Nott'm Forest	12	7	3	2	+12	+6.3	24
4	Man City	11	7	2	2	+9	+10.2	23
5	Aston Villa	12	6	5	1	+6	+11.5	23
6	Brentford	13	7	2	4	+4	+4.1	23
7	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+7	+11.0	22
8	Bournemouth	12	6	3	3	+8	+9.4	21
9	Newcastle	12	6	2	4	+6	+5.2	20
10	Everton	13	4	5	4	+3	-0.3	17
11	Fulham	12	4	5	3	+0	+1.4	17
12	Man United	13	5	1	7	-5	+0.3	16
13	Brighton	11	3	6	2	+0	+2.1	15
14	Tottenham	12	4	2	6	+4	+0.2	14
15	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-10	-6.6	14
16	Crystal Palace	12	2	5	5	-8	+0.4	11
17	Wolves	12	3	1	8	-8	-4.9	10
18	Leicester	12	2	3	7	-10	-9.7	9
19	Ipswich	13	1	4	8	-17	-10.3	7
20	Southampton	11	1	1	9	-22	-19.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	9	4	0	+20	+19.1	31
2	Nott'm Forest	12	7	2	3	+1	-0.9	23
3	Arsenal	12	6	4	2	+10	+3.9	22
4	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+9	+3.7	21
5	Newcastle	12	6	3	3	+7	+6.5	21
6	Crystal Palace	12	5	4	3	+6	+0.2	19
7	Bournemouth	12	5	4	3	+5	+5.3	19
8	Fulham	12	5	4	3	+4	+4.9	19
9	Brighton	13	5	4	4	-3	-5.9	19
10	Man City	13	5	3	5	+4	+0.1	18
11	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-9	-6.7	14
12	Tottenham	12	4	1	7	+7	-1.1	13
13	Man United	11	3	4	4	-1	-3.2	13
14	West Ham	12	3	4	5	-7	-2.5	13
15	Everton	11	2	4	5	-8	-4.7	10
16	Wolves	12	2	3	7	-10	-8.9	9
17	Ipswich	11	2	3	6	-10	-16.0	9
18	Brentford	11	2	2	7	-4	-5.2	8
19	Leicester	12	2	2	8	-18	-14.6	8
20	Southampton	13	1	2	10	-14	-13.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.