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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Chelsea

T S S U T

3–2

Full-time

Brighton

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,3

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

31%

46%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

54%

77%

Both score Ø 77%

54%

100%

Average goals

3,2

3,9

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,11 xG 1,14

32% Possession 68%

8 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 9

0 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 12. · Brighton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	10	3	1	+18	+14.7	33
2	Man City	13	9	2	2	+20	+14.5	29
3	Liverpool	13	8	4	1	+17	+11.5	28
4	Aston Villa	13	9	1	3	+13	+7.5	28
5	Newcastle	14	8	2	4	+18	+14.0	26
6	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+8	+0.9	26
7	Man United	14	8	0	6	-1	-3.7	24
8	Brighton	13	6	4	3	+5	+3.1	22
9	West Ham	13	6	2	5	+0	-5.1	20
10	Brentford	14	5	4	5	+3	+9.1	19
11	Everton	14	5	2	7	-5	+2.3	17
12	Chelsea	13	4	4	5	+2	+8.6	16
13	Crystal Palace	13	4	3	6	-5	-2.0	15
14	Wolves	14	4	3	7	-6	-6.5	15
15	Fulham	13	4	3	6	-9	-8.5	15
16	Nott'm Forest	14	3	4	7	-6	-5.0	13
17	Bournemouth	13	3	3	7	-14	-8.2	12
18	Luton	14	2	3	9	-13	-16.0	9
19	Burnley	14	2	1	11	-17	-11.0	7
20	Sheffield United	14	1	2	11	-28	-20.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	8	7	0	1	+15	+11.7	21
2	Arsenal	8	6	2	0	+12	+10.6	20
3	Aston Villa	6	6	0	0	+18	+9.0	18
4	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+15	+10.4	18
5	Man City	6	5	1	0	+13	+3.7	16
6	Brighton	7	3	3	1	+5	+2.7	12
7	Brentford	8	3	3	2	+3	+5.8	12
8	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+2	-0.1	12
9	Man United	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.3	12
10	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	-3.2	10
11	Nott'm Forest	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.8	9
12	Fulham	6	3	0	3	-2	-0.7	9
13	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-3	-2.2	8
14	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.1	8
15	Chelsea	7	1	3	3	-1	+4.0	6
16	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.5	5
17	Luton	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.7	5
18	Everton	7	1	1	5	-4	+5.1	4
19	Sheffield United	7	1	1	5	-12	-10.7	4
20	Burnley	8	1	0	7	-10	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.0	14
2	Man City	7	4	1	2	+7	+10.8	13
3	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+6	+4.1	13
4	Everton	7	4	1	2	-1	-2.7	13
5	Man United	7	4	0	3	+1	-4.0	12
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	+4.6	10
7	Liverpool	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.1	10
8	Brighton	6	3	1	2	+0	+0.4	10
9	West Ham	7	3	1	3	-2	-1.9	10
10	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	-3	-1.5	10
11	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	-5	-1.5	10
12	Brentford	6	2	1	3	+0	+3.4	7
13	Wolves	8	2	1	5	-3	-4.4	7
14	Fulham	7	1	3	3	-7	-7.8	6
15	Newcastle	6	1	2	3	+3	+2.3	5
16	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.7	4
17	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-7	-6.9	4
18	Bournemouth	6	1	1	4	-10	-4.1	4
19	Luton	8	1	1	6	-11	-14.3	4
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-16	-9.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.