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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Paris SG

T U U S S

2–3

Full-time

Nice

S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,5

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,95 xG 1,30

69% Possession 31%

12 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 2. · Nice 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+8	+3.8	10
2	Paris SG	4	2	2	0	+5	+5.4	8
3	Marseille	4	2	2	0	+3	+4.8	8
4	Reims	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
5	Brest	4	2	1	1	+0	+1.3	7
6	Lille	4	2	1	1	+0	+2.0	7
7	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+4	+6.1	6
8	Nice	4	1	3	0	+2	+4.5	6
9	Strasbourg	4	2	0	2	-2	+0.0	6
10	Le Havre	4	1	2	1	+2	-1.9	5
11	Lorient	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.9	5
12	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	-1	-5.0	5
13	Metz	4	1	2	1	-3	-4.5	5
14	Montpellier	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.7	4
15	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-3	-5.4	2
16	Clermont	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.0	1
17	Lens	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.6	1
18	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.8	6
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.7	6
3	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.6	6
4	Lille	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.2	6
5	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.6	5
6	Rennes	2	1	1	0	+4	+6.7	4
7	Lorient	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.5	4
8	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.2	4
9	Brest	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.9	4
10	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.5	3
11	Reims	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
12	Metz	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.1	2
13	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
14	Nantes	3	0	2	1	-1	-4.1	2
15	Lens	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
16	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
17	Clermont	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.3	0
18	Lyon	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
2	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+2	+3.0	4
3	Reims	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.2	4
4	Montpellier	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.6	3
5	Brest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
6	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.9	3
7	Metz	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.4	3
8	Le Havre	2	0	2	0	+0	-3.3	2
9	Marseille	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.1	2
10	Rennes	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
11	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
13	Clermont	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
14	Lille	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.2	1
15	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.4	1
16	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
17	Strasbourg	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.5	0
18	Lens	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.