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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Nice

S T T U T

1–2

Full-time

Montpellier

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 34%

46%

21%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

21%

54%

Both score Ø 38%

29%

46%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

0,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,10 xG 1,19

65% Possession 35%

19 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 5. · Montpellier 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	24	16	7	1	+35	+21.4	55
2	Brest	24	13	7	4	+17	+9.2	46
3	Monaco	24	12	6	6	+10	+4.3	42
4	Lille	24	11	8	5	+14	+11.5	41
5	Nice	24	11	7	6	+6	+9.1	40
6	Lens	24	11	6	7	+9	+3.3	39
7	Marseille	24	9	9	6	+12	+18.2	36
8	Rennes	24	9	8	7	+7	+9.1	35
9	Reims	24	10	4	10	-2	+4.7	34
10	Toulouse	24	7	8	9	-5	-8.2	29
11	Lyon	24	8	4	12	-13	-6.6	28
12	Strasbourg	24	6	8	10	-12	-4.3	26
13	Lorient	24	6	7	11	-12	-11.2	25
14	Nantes	24	7	4	13	-13	-10.9	25
15	Montpellier	24	5	9	10	-6	-0.5	24
16	Le Havre	24	5	9	10	-7	-12.5	24
17	Metz	24	5	5	14	-16	-16.3	20
18	Clermont	24	3	8	13	-24	-20.3	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	3	1	+19	+14.3	27
2	Lille	11	8	2	1	+17	+15.2	26
3	Marseille	12	7	5	0	+15	+15.4	26
4	Brest	12	7	4	1	+12	+11.6	25
5	Nice	12	7	4	1	+9	+8.3	25
6	Rennes	13	6	3	4	+8	+10.7	21
7	Lens	11	6	2	3	+7	+6.6	20
8	Monaco	12	6	2	4	+7	+5.9	20
9	Reims	12	5	2	5	-1	+4.8	17
10	Strasbourg	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.7	15
11	Lyon	13	4	3	6	-7	+0.2	15
12	Toulouse	12	3	5	4	+1	+3.1	14
13	Montpellier	13	2	8	3	+1	+6.5	14
14	Le Havre	11	4	2	5	+1	+2.2	14
15	Lorient	12	3	4	5	-2	-4.4	13
16	Nantes	13	3	3	7	-5	-3.4	12
17	Clermont	12	1	4	7	-13	-7.4	7
18	Metz	11	1	3	7	-5	-2.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+16	+7.2	28
2	Monaco	12	6	4	2	+3	-1.6	22
3	Brest	12	6	3	3	+5	-2.3	21
4	Lens	13	5	4	4	+2	-3.3	19
5	Reims	12	5	2	5	-1	-0.1	17
6	Lille	13	3	6	4	-3	-3.7	15
7	Nice	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.7	15
8	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	-6	-11.3	15
9	Rennes	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.6	14
10	Metz	13	4	2	7	-11	-14.1	14
11	Lyon	11	4	1	6	-6	-6.8	13
12	Nantes	11	4	1	6	-8	-7.5	13
13	Lorient	12	3	3	6	-10	-6.9	12
14	Strasbourg	12	2	5	5	-9	-5.0	11
15	Marseille	12	2	4	6	-3	+2.8	10
16	Montpellier	11	3	1	7	-7	-7.0	10
17	Le Havre	13	1	7	5	-8	-14.6	10
18	Clermont	12	2	4	6	-11	-12.9	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.