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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Marseille

T U U T S

4–1

Full-time

Montpellier

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 28%

32%

23%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

41%

50%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

41%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,66 xG 0,60

58% Possession 42%

16 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 9. · Montpellier 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	23	16	6	1	+35	+21.5	54
2	Brest	23	12	7	4	+16	+8.8	43
3	Monaco	23	12	5	6	+10	+4.2	41
4	Nice	23	11	7	5	+7	+9.4	40
5	Lille	23	10	8	5	+13	+11.0	38
6	Lens	23	10	6	7	+6	+2.1	36
7	Rennes	23	9	8	6	+8	+9.7	35
8	Reims	23	10	4	9	-1	+5.2	34
9	Marseille	22	7	9	6	+5	+14.2	30
10	Lyon	23	8	4	11	-10	-5.5	28
11	Toulouse	23	6	8	9	-6	-8.6	26
12	Nantes	23	7	4	12	-11	-9.4	25
13	Strasbourg	23	6	7	10	-12	-4.4	25
14	Le Havre	23	5	9	9	-6	-12.1	24
15	Montpellier	22	5	8	9	-3	+1.7	23
16	Lorient	23	5	7	11	-13	-11.8	22
17	Metz	23	4	5	14	-18	-17.7	17
18	Clermont	23	3	8	12	-20	-18.4	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	3	1	+19	+14.3	27
2	Lille	11	8	2	1	+17	+15.2	26
3	Nice	12	7	4	1	+9	+8.3	25
4	Marseille	11	6	5	0	+12	+13.3	23
5	Brest	11	6	4	1	+11	+11.2	22
6	Rennes	12	6	3	3	+9	+11.3	21
7	Lens	11	6	2	3	+7	+6.6	20
8	Monaco	11	6	1	4	+7	+5.8	19
9	Reims	11	5	2	4	+0	+5.3	17
10	Strasbourg	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.7	15
11	Lyon	12	4	3	5	-4	+1.4	15
12	Le Havre	11	4	2	5	+1	+2.2	14
13	Montpellier	12	2	7	3	+1	+6.6	13
14	Lorient	12	3	4	5	-2	-4.4	13
15	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-3	-2.0	12
16	Toulouse	11	2	5	4	+0	+2.7	11
17	Clermont	11	1	4	6	-9	-5.4	7
18	Metz	11	1	3	7	-5	-2.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	3	0	+16	+7.3	27
2	Monaco	12	6	4	2	+3	-1.6	22
3	Brest	12	6	3	3	+5	-2.3	21
4	Reims	12	5	2	5	-1	-0.1	17
5	Lens	12	4	4	4	-1	-4.5	16
6	Nice	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.1	15
7	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	-6	-11.3	15
8	Rennes	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.6	14
9	Lyon	11	4	1	6	-6	-6.8	13
10	Nantes	11	4	1	6	-8	-7.5	13
11	Lille	12	2	6	4	-4	-4.2	12
12	Metz	12	3	2	7	-13	-15.6	11
13	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-4	-4.9	10
14	Le Havre	12	1	7	4	-7	-14.3	10
15	Strasbourg	11	2	4	5	-9	-5.1	10
16	Clermont	12	2	4	6	-11	-12.9	10
17	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-11	-7.5	9
18	Marseille	11	1	4	6	-7	+0.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.