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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Toulouse

T T S U S

2–1

Full-time

Nice

U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 37%

26%

48%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

52%

17%

Both score Ø 44%

61%

26%

Average goals

2,4

1,6

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,79 xG 1,44

44% Possession 56%

17 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 11. · Nice 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	24	16	7	1	+35	+21.4	55
2	Brest	23	12	7	4	+16	+8.8	43
3	Monaco	24	12	6	6	+10	+4.3	42
4	Lille	24	11	8	5	+14	+11.5	41
5	Nice	23	11	7	5	+7	+9.4	40
6	Marseille	24	9	9	6	+12	+18.2	36
7	Lens	23	10	6	7	+6	+2.1	36
8	Rennes	23	9	8	6	+8	+9.7	35
9	Reims	24	10	4	10	-2	+4.7	34
10	Lyon	23	8	4	11	-10	-5.5	28
11	Toulouse	23	6	8	9	-6	-8.6	26
12	Nantes	23	7	4	12	-11	-9.4	25
13	Strasbourg	23	6	7	10	-12	-4.4	25
14	Le Havre	23	5	9	9	-6	-12.1	24
15	Montpellier	23	5	8	10	-6	-0.4	23
16	Lorient	23	5	7	11	-13	-11.8	22
17	Metz	23	4	5	14	-18	-17.7	17
18	Clermont	24	3	8	13	-24	-20.3	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	3	1	+19	+14.3	27
2	Lille	11	8	2	1	+17	+15.2	26
3	Marseille	12	7	5	0	+15	+15.4	26
4	Nice	12	7	4	1	+9	+8.3	25
5	Brest	11	6	4	1	+11	+11.2	22
6	Rennes	12	6	3	3	+9	+11.3	21
7	Lens	11	6	2	3	+7	+6.6	20
8	Monaco	12	6	2	4	+7	+5.9	20
9	Reims	12	5	2	5	-1	+4.8	17
10	Strasbourg	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.7	15
11	Lyon	12	4	3	5	-4	+1.4	15
12	Le Havre	11	4	2	5	+1	+2.2	14
13	Montpellier	12	2	7	3	+1	+6.6	13
14	Lorient	12	3	4	5	-2	-4.4	13
15	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-3	-2.0	12
16	Toulouse	11	2	5	4	+0	+2.7	11
17	Clermont	12	1	4	7	-13	-7.4	7
18	Metz	11	1	3	7	-5	-2.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+16	+7.2	28
2	Monaco	12	6	4	2	+3	-1.6	22
3	Brest	12	6	3	3	+5	-2.3	21
4	Reims	12	5	2	5	-1	-0.1	17
5	Lens	12	4	4	4	-1	-4.5	16
6	Nice	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.1	15
7	Lille	13	3	6	4	-3	-3.7	15
8	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	-6	-11.3	15
9	Rennes	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.6	14
10	Lyon	11	4	1	6	-6	-6.8	13
11	Nantes	11	4	1	6	-8	-7.5	13
12	Metz	12	3	2	7	-13	-15.6	11
13	Marseille	12	2	4	6	-3	+2.8	10
14	Montpellier	11	3	1	7	-7	-7.0	10
15	Le Havre	12	1	7	4	-7	-14.3	10
16	Strasbourg	11	2	4	5	-9	-5.1	10
17	Clermont	12	2	4	6	-11	-12.9	10
18	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-11	-7.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.