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Ligue 1

Referee: R Lissorgue

Metz

S S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Lens

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 32%

21%

43%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,82 xG 1,54

30% Possession 70%

11 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 17. · Lens 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	28	18	9	1	+41	+23.8	63
2	Brest	28	15	8	5	+18	+10.3	53
3	Monaco	28	15	7	6	+15	+8.3	52
4	Lille	28	13	10	5	+17	+14.4	49
5	Nice	28	12	8	8	+6	+11.2	44
6	Lens	28	12	7	9	+7	+0.5	43
7	Reims	28	11	7	10	-1	+3.9	40
8	Marseille	28	10	9	9	+8	+16.5	39
9	Rennes	28	10	9	9	+6	+6.2	39
10	Lyon	28	11	5	12	-8	-4.6	38
11	Toulouse	28	8	9	11	-4	-6.5	33
12	Montpellier	28	8	9	11	-5	+2.2	33
13	Strasbourg	28	8	9	11	-9	-3.4	33
14	Le Havre	28	6	10	12	-9	-11.5	28
15	Nantes	28	8	4	16	-18	-13.0	28
16	Lorient	28	6	8	14	-17	-15.0	26
17	Metz	28	6	5	17	-20	-19.1	23
18	Clermont	28	4	9	15	-27	-24.4	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	14	10	3	1	+20	+18.2	33
2	Paris SG	14	8	5	1	+19	+16.7	29
3	Marseille	14	8	5	1	+15	+15.0	29
4	Brest	14	8	5	1	+13	+13.3	29
5	Nice	14	7	4	3	+7	+7.9	25
6	Rennes	14	7	3	4	+10	+11.3	24
7	Monaco	14	7	3	4	+8	+8.7	24
8	Lens	14	7	3	4	+6	+4.9	24
9	Reims	14	6	3	5	+0	+4.5	21
10	Strasbourg	14	5	3	6	-2	+1.3	18
11	Le Havre	13	5	2	6	+0	+2.2	17
12	Montpellier	15	3	8	4	-1	+8.2	17
13	Lyon	14	4	4	6	-7	+0.7	16
14	Toulouse	14	3	6	5	+0	+4.6	15
15	Lorient	14	3	4	7	-5	-5.2	13
16	Nantes	15	3	3	9	-9	-5.5	12
17	Clermont	14	2	4	8	-15	-8.5	10
18	Metz	13	2	3	8	-7	-1.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	4	0	+22	+7.1	34
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+7	-0.4	28
3	Brest	14	7	3	4	+5	-3.0	24
4	Lyon	14	7	1	6	-1	-5.2	22
5	Lens	14	5	4	5	+1	-4.3	19
6	Reims	14	5	4	5	-1	-0.6	19
7	Nice	14	5	4	5	-1	+3.3	19
8	Toulouse	14	5	3	6	-4	-11.1	18
9	Lille	14	3	7	4	-3	-3.8	16
10	Montpellier	13	5	1	7	-4	-6.0	16
11	Nantes	13	5	1	7	-9	-7.5	16
12	Rennes	14	3	6	5	-4	-5.2	15
13	Strasbourg	14	3	6	5	-7	-4.7	15
14	Metz	15	4	2	9	-13	-17.2	14
15	Lorient	14	3	4	7	-12	-9.8	13
16	Le Havre	15	1	8	6	-9	-13.7	11
17	Clermont	14	2	5	7	-12	-15.9	11
18	Marseille	14	2	4	8	-7	+1.5	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.