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Serie A

Referee: L Zufferli

Lazio

T S S T T

4–1

Full-time

Salernitana

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 26%

45%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

42%

65%

Both score Ø 52%

48%

55%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,1

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

1,89 xG 0,57

66% Possession 34%

17 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 0

3 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 8. · Salernitana 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	31	26	4	1	+60	+42.7	82
2	Milan	31	21	5	5	+26	+14.1	68
3	Juventus	31	18	8	5	+21	+24.7	62
4	Bologna	31	16	10	5	+20	+11.0	58
5	Roma	31	16	7	8	+21	+11.3	55
6	Atalanta	30	15	5	10	+21	+9.7	50
7	Napoli	31	13	9	9	+10	+20.3	48
8	Lazio	31	14	4	13	+3	+2.6	46
9	Torino	31	11	11	9	+2	+5.4	44
10	Fiorentina	30	12	7	11	+7	-0.6	43
11	Monza	31	11	9	11	-7	-12.0	42
12	Genoa	31	9	11	11	-4	-4.2	38
13	Cagliari	31	7	9	15	-20	-10.7	30
14	Lecce	31	6	11	14	-22	-13.4	29
15	Udinese	31	4	16	11	-17	-11.0	28
16	Empoli	31	7	7	17	-22	-12.9	28
17	Verona	31	6	9	16	-14	-12.1	27
18	Frosinone	31	6	8	17	-23	-15.5	26
19	Sassuolo	31	6	7	18	-23	-14.1	25
20	Salernitana	31	2	9	20	-39	-35.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	13	2	1	+31	+25.4	41
2	Bologna	16	12	2	2	+21	+7.4	38
3	Roma	16	11	3	2	+20	+10.6	36
4	Milan	15	11	2	2	+18	+8.3	35
5	Juventus	16	10	5	1	+13	+16.6	35
6	Atalanta	14	10	1	3	+21	+12.1	31
7	Fiorentina	15	8	3	4	+10	+6.1	27
8	Torino	15	7	6	2	+7	+8.4	27
9	Lazio	15	7	3	5	+3	+6.8	24
10	Monza	16	6	5	5	-1	-5.2	23
11	Cagliari	16	6	5	5	-3	+4.3	23
12	Frosinone	16	6	4	6	-1	-3.5	22
13	Napoli	15	6	4	5	-1	+11.1	22
14	Genoa	15	5	6	4	+0	-0.8	21
15	Lecce	15	5	5	5	-7	-2.0	20
16	Verona	15	4	5	6	-4	-5.1	17
17	Sassuolo	15	4	4	7	-7	-5.4	16
18	Empoli	16	3	4	9	-10	-5.8	13
19	Udinese	16	1	9	6	-7	-1.2	12
20	Salernitana	16	1	5	10	-17	-12.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	13	2	0	+29	+17.3	41
2	Milan	16	10	3	3	+8	+5.8	33
3	Juventus	15	8	3	4	+8	+8.1	27
4	Napoli	16	7	5	4	+11	+9.2	26
5	Lazio	16	7	1	8	+0	-4.2	22
6	Bologna	15	4	8	3	-1	+3.6	20
7	Roma	15	5	4	6	+1	+0.7	19
8	Atalanta	16	5	4	7	+0	-2.4	19
9	Monza	15	5	4	6	-6	-6.8	19
10	Genoa	16	4	5	7	-4	-3.3	17
11	Torino	16	4	5	7	-5	-3.0	17
12	Fiorentina	15	4	4	7	-3	-6.7	16
13	Udinese	15	3	7	5	-10	-9.8	16
14	Empoli	15	4	3	8	-12	-7.1	15
15	Verona	16	2	4	10	-10	-7.0	10
16	Lecce	16	1	6	9	-15	-11.4	9
17	Sassuolo	16	2	3	11	-16	-8.6	9
18	Cagliari	15	1	4	10	-17	-14.9	7
19	Salernitana	15	1	4	10	-22	-22.9	7
20	Frosinone	15	0	4	11	-22	-12.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.