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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Lens

S T U T T

0–1

Full-time

Metz

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

3,5

3,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,04 xG 0,28

75% Possession 25%

31 Shots 2

10 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 10

9 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 17. · Metz 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+8	+3.8	10
2	Nice	5	2	3	0	+3	+4.8	9
3	Paris SG	5	2	2	1	+4	+5.0	8
4	Marseille	4	2	2	0	+3	+4.8	8
5	Lille	5	2	2	1	+0	+2.5	8
6	Rennes	5	1	4	0	+4	+5.5	7
7	Reims	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
8	Brest	4	2	1	1	+0	+1.3	7
9	Strasbourg	4	2	0	2	-2	+0.0	6
10	Le Havre	4	1	2	1	+2	-1.9	5
11	Lorient	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.9	5
12	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	-1	-5.0	5
13	Metz	4	1	2	1	-3	-4.5	5
14	Montpellier	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.7	4
15	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-3	-5.4	2
16	Clermont	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.0	1
17	Lens	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.6	1
18	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.8	6
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.7	6
3	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.6	6
4	Lille	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.2	6
5	Rennes	3	1	2	0	+4	+6.2	5
6	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.6	5
7	Lorient	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.5	4
8	Paris SG	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.8	4
9	Brest	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.9	4
10	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.5	3
11	Reims	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
12	Metz	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.1	2
13	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
14	Nantes	3	0	2	1	-1	-4.1	2
15	Lens	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
16	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
17	Clermont	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.3	0
18	Lyon	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
2	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+2	+3.0	4
3	Reims	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.2	4
4	Nice	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
5	Montpellier	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.6	3
6	Brest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
7	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.9	3
8	Metz	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.4	3
9	Le Havre	2	0	2	0	+0	-3.3	2
10	Marseille	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.1	2
11	Rennes	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
12	Lille	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.3	2
13	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
14	Clermont	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
15	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.4	1
16	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
17	Strasbourg	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.5	0
18	Lens	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.