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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Toulouse

T U S S S

0–3

Full-time

Lens

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 57%

38%

75%

Points per game

1,4

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,66 xG 1,62

32% Possession 68%

8 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 8

16 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 8. · Lens 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	16	12	1	3	+15	+7.4	37
2	Paris SG	16	11	3	2	+21	+15.7	36
3	Marseille	16	10	2	4	+21	+13.0	32
4	Lille	16	10	2	4	+13	+7.3	32
5	Lyon	16	8	3	5	+6	+6.4	27
6	Rennes	16	7	6	3	+3	-1.1	27
7	Strasbourg	16	7	2	7	+5	+6.5	23
8	Toulouse	16	6	5	5	+5	+3.3	23
9	Monaco	16	7	2	7	-1	+3.6	23
10	Angers	16	6	4	6	-1	-11.4	22
11	Brest	16	5	4	7	-6	+0.2	19
12	Lorient	16	4	6	6	-9	+0.7	18
13	Nice	16	5	2	9	-10	-11.8	17
14	Paris FC	16	4	4	8	-8	-5.8	16
15	Le Havre	16	3	6	7	-9	-2.8	15
16	Auxerre	16	3	3	10	-11	-2.4	12
17	Nantes	16	2	5	9	-14	-15.6	11
18	Metz	16	3	2	11	-20	-13.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	8	7	0	1	+12	+9.4	21
2	Marseille	8	6	2	0	+16	+11.7	20
3	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+14	+9.2	19
4	Lille	8	6	1	1	+10	+8.8	19
5	Lyon	8	6	0	2	+8	+8.3	18
6	Rennes	8	5	2	1	+10	+6.4	17
7	Strasbourg	8	5	1	2	+10	+10.1	16
8	Monaco	8	5	1	2	+4	+5.7	16
9	Lorient	8	4	3	1	+3	+4.1	15
10	Angers	8	4	2	2	+5	-1.3	14
11	Nice	8	4	1	3	+0	-2.5	13
12	Toulouse	8	3	3	2	+3	+4.8	12
13	Brest	8	3	3	2	+1	+6.3	12
14	Le Havre	8	2	4	2	+1	+6.0	10
15	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	-1	+3.7	10
16	Paris FC	8	2	2	4	-3	+0.1	8
17	Metz	8	2	2	4	-3	-1.5	8
18	Nantes	8	1	2	5	-7	-6.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	5	2	2	+7	+6.5	17
2	Lens	8	5	1	2	+3	-1.9	16
3	Lille	8	4	1	3	+3	-1.5	13
4	Marseille	8	4	0	4	+5	+1.2	12
5	Toulouse	8	3	2	3	+2	-1.5	11
6	Rennes	8	2	4	2	-7	-7.5	10
7	Lyon	8	2	3	3	-2	-1.9	9
8	Paris FC	8	2	2	4	-5	-5.9	8
9	Angers	8	2	2	4	-6	-10.1	8
10	Strasbourg	8	2	1	5	-5	-3.6	7
11	Monaco	8	2	1	5	-5	-2.1	7
12	Brest	8	2	1	5	-7	-6.1	7
13	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-7	-8.9	6
14	Le Havre	8	1	2	5	-10	-8.8	5
15	Nice	8	1	1	6	-10	-9.4	4
16	Lorient	8	0	3	5	-12	-3.4	3
17	Metz	8	1	0	7	-17	-11.9	3
18	Auxerre	7	0	2	5	-10	-6.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.