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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Toulouse

U T S S U

0–2

Full-time

Lens

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 28%

17%

39%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

44%

39%

Both score Ø 45%

56%

33%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,78 xG 0,79

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 14. · Lens 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	13	4	1	+30	+17.9	43
2	Nice	19	11	5	3	+9	+9.9	38
3	Brest	18	10	4	4	+12	+6.7	34
4	Monaco	19	10	4	5	+9	+3.8	34
5	Lille	19	8	8	3	+10	+8.6	32
6	Reims	19	9	3	7	+1	+3.2	30
7	Marseille	19	7	8	4	+7	+15.6	29
8	Lens	18	7	5	6	+2	+1.7	26
9	Rennes	19	6	7	6	+4	+7.3	25
10	Strasbourg	19	6	7	6	-4	-3.2	25
11	Le Havre	19	5	8	6	-1	-6.2	23
12	Montpellier	19	4	8	7	-4	+0.3	20
13	Nantes	19	5	4	10	-10	-7.4	19
14	Toulouse	18	3	8	7	-7	-10.4	17
15	Metz	19	4	4	11	-13	-14.7	16
16	Lyon	19	4	4	11	-14	-6.3	16
17	Clermont	19	3	6	10	-14	-13.1	15
18	Lorient	19	2	7	10	-17	-13.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	10	7	3	0	+10	+8.3	24
2	Paris SG	9	7	1	1	+17	+10.2	22
3	Marseille	10	6	4	0	+12	+12.4	22
4	Lille	9	6	2	1	+10	+9.6	20
5	Brest	9	5	3	1	+10	+9.7	18
6	Monaco	9	6	0	3	+8	+4.3	18
7	Lens	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.3	17
8	Reims	9	5	1	3	+1	+4.2	16
9	Rennes	10	4	3	3	+6	+7.7	15
10	Strasbourg	9	4	3	2	+3	+2.1	15
11	Le Havre	9	4	2	3	+3	+3.6	14
12	Nantes	10	3	3	4	+0	-0.7	12
13	Montpellier	10	1	7	2	-1	+4.5	10
14	Lorient	10	2	4	4	-3	-5.1	10
15	Lyon	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.1	9
16	Toulouse	8	1	5	2	+1	-0.5	8
17	Metz	9	1	3	5	-3	-1.8	6
18	Clermont	10	1	3	6	-9	-5.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	6	3	0	+13	+7.7	21
2	Brest	9	5	1	3	+2	-3.0	16
3	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+1	-0.6	16
4	Reims	10	4	2	4	+0	-1.0	14
5	Nice	9	4	2	3	-1	+1.6	14
6	Lille	10	2	6	2	+0	-1.0	12
7	Rennes	9	2	4	3	-2	-0.4	10
8	Montpellier	9	3	1	5	-3	-4.2	10
9	Strasbourg	10	2	4	4	-7	-5.4	10
10	Metz	10	3	1	6	-10	-12.9	10
11	Le Havre	10	1	6	3	-4	-9.8	9
12	Lens	9	2	3	4	-4	-4.6	9
13	Clermont	9	2	3	4	-5	-8.0	9
14	Toulouse	10	2	3	5	-8	-10.0	9
15	Marseille	9	1	4	4	-5	+3.2	7
16	Lyon	9	2	1	6	-8	-6.4	7
17	Nantes	9	2	1	6	-10	-6.7	7
18	Lorient	9	0	3	6	-14	-8.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.