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Ligue 1

Referee: Stephanie Frappart

Toulouse

U U U T U

1–0

Full-time

Strasbourg

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 40%

29%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

64%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,50 xG 0,05

28% Possession 72%

6 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

21 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Strasbourg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	11	1	3	+13	+6.6	34
2	Paris SG	14	9	3	2	+15	+12.5	30
3	Marseille	15	9	2	4	+20	+13.4	29
4	Lille	15	9	2	4	+12	+9.8	29
5	Rennes	14	6	6	2	+6	-0.5	24
6	Lyon	14	7	3	4	+6	+7.3	24
7	Monaco	15	7	2	6	+0	+3.2	23
8	Strasbourg	14	7	1	6	+6	+6.8	22
9	Brest	15	5	4	6	-4	+1.6	19
10	Toulouse	14	4	5	5	+1	+0.8	17
11	Nice	14	5	2	7	-7	-11.4	17
12	Angers	14	4	4	6	-5	-13.0	16
13	Paris FC	14	4	3	7	-5	-3.1	15
14	Le Havre	14	3	5	6	-8	-2.2	14
15	Lorient	14	3	5	6	-10	-1.2	14
16	Nantes	15	2	5	8	-11	-13.6	11
17	Metz	14	3	2	9	-17	-10.8	11
18	Auxerre	14	2	3	9	-12	-6.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	8	6	1	1	+10	+8.8	19
2	Lens	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.5	18
3	Marseille	7	5	2	0	+15	+12.1	17
4	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+9	+7.2	16
5	Monaco	8	5	1	2	+4	+5.7	16
6	Strasbourg	7	5	0	2	+10	+10.0	15
7	Lyon	7	5	0	2	+7	+7.0	15
8	Rennes	7	4	2	1	+8	+5.0	14
9	Nice	7	4	1	2	+1	-3.0	13
10	Lorient	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.0	12
11	Brest	8	3	3	2	+1	+6.3	12
12	Angers	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.4	11
13	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	+2	+4.3	9
14	Le Havre	7	2	3	2	+1	+5.4	9
15	Paris FC	7	2	2	3	+0	+2.2	8
16	Metz	7	2	2	3	-2	-0.3	8
17	Auxerre	7	2	1	4	-2	-0.1	7
18	Nantes	8	1	2	5	-7	-6.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	8	5	1	2	+3	-1.9	16
2	Paris SG	8	4	2	2	+6	+5.3	14
3	Marseille	8	4	0	4	+5	+1.2	12
4	Lille	7	3	1	3	+2	+1.0	10
5	Rennes	7	2	4	1	-2	-5.5	10
6	Lyon	7	2	3	2	-1	+0.2	9
7	Toulouse	7	2	2	3	-1	-3.5	8
8	Strasbourg	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.1	7
9	Monaco	7	2	1	4	-4	-2.5	7
10	Paris FC	7	2	1	4	-5	-5.3	7
11	Brest	7	2	1	4	-5	-4.7	7
12	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-4	-6.8	6
13	Angers	7	1	2	4	-7	-9.6	5
14	Le Havre	7	1	2	4	-9	-7.5	5
15	Nice	7	1	1	5	-8	-8.5	4
16	Metz	7	1	0	6	-15	-10.5	3
17	Auxerre	7	0	2	5	-10	-6.1	2
18	Lorient	7	0	2	5	-12	-3.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.