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Eredivisie

Referee: R Hensgens

Utrecht

S S T S S

1–0

Full-time

Heracles

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 10/11 matches

Win Ø 54%

80%

27%

Points per game

2,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

60%

64%

Both score Ø 63%

70%

55%

Average goals

3,0

3,1

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,1

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,73 xG 0,87

55% Possession 45%

19 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 3. · Heracles 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	10	0	1	+28	+14.7	30
2	Ajax	10	8	1	1	+14	+12.4	25
3	Utrecht	10	8	1	1	+8	-2.5	25
4	Feyenoord	11	6	4	1	+12	+10.8	22
5	Twente	11	6	3	2	+13	+14.1	21
6	For Sittard	11	5	2	4	-1	+0.4	17
7	Go Ahead Eagles	11	4	3	4	-4	+7.1	15
8	NAC Breda	11	5	0	6	-6	-3.4	15
9	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	2	4	+2	+3.7	14
10	Nijmegen	11	4	1	6	+6	+0.5	13
11	Willem II	11	3	3	5	+0	-9.0	12
12	Heracles	11	3	3	5	-10	-9.6	12
13	Heerenveen	10	3	2	5	-3	+0.2	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	11	2	5	4	-5	+0.6	11
15	Groningen	11	2	3	6	-8	-8.9	9
16	Zwolle	11	2	3	6	-10	-11.0	9
17	Almere City	11	1	3	7	-18	-7.0	6
18	Waalwijk	11	1	1	9	-18	-13.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+16	+7.7	15
2	Ajax	5	5	0	0	+10	+8.4	15
3	NAC Breda	5	4	0	1	+5	+2.4	12
4	For Sittard	6	4	0	2	+3	+2.8	12
5	Utrecht	5	4	0	1	+2	+0.5	12
6	Twente	5	3	2	0	+8	+10.3	11
7	Heerenveen	5	3	2	0	+7	+5.7	11
8	Nijmegen	6	3	1	2	+8	+3.5	10
9	Feyenoord	5	3	1	1	+2	+5.2	10
10	Heracles	6	2	2	2	+0	-1.9	8
11	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	2	2	-1	+7.0	8
12	Willem II	6	2	1	3	+1	-3.4	7
13	Zwolle	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.8	6
14	Groningen	5	1	2	2	+1	-2.6	5
15	AZ Alkmaar	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.8	4
16	Sparta Rotterdam	6	0	4	2	-4	+3.0	4
17	Waalwijk	6	1	1	4	-5	-5.0	4
18	Almere City	6	1	1	4	-12	-1.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	5	0	1	+12	+7.0	15
2	Utrecht	5	4	1	0	+6	-3.0	13
3	Feyenoord	6	3	3	0	+10	+5.6	12
4	Twente	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.8	10
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	+4	+3.9	10
6	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.9	10
7	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	1	2	-1	-2.3	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	1	2	-3	+0.0	7
9	Willem II	5	1	2	2	-1	-5.6	5
10	For Sittard	5	1	2	2	-4	-2.3	5
11	Groningen	6	1	1	4	-9	-6.3	4
12	Heracles	5	1	1	3	-10	-7.6	4
13	Nijmegen	5	1	0	4	-2	-3.1	3
14	Zwolle	6	0	3	3	-8	-10.2	3
15	NAC Breda	6	1	0	5	-11	-5.9	3
16	Almere City	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.1	2
17	Heerenveen	5	0	0	5	-10	-5.5	0
18	Waalwijk	5	0	0	5	-13	-8.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.