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Eredivisie

Referee: E van de Graaf

Heracles

T U S S T

3–4

Full-time

Ajax

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,7

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 8/6 matches

Win Ø 46%

25%

67%

Points per game

1,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

63%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,9

2,2

Conceded

1,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

0,96 xG 4,13

32% Possession 68%

14 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 0

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heracles 13. · Ajax 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+23	+13.5	27
2	Utrecht	7	6	1	0	+6	-0.5	19
3	Feyenoord	8	4	4	0	+11	+8.0	16
4	Twente	9	4	3	2	+7	+10.6	15
5	Ajax	6	4	1	1	+9	+7.5	13
6	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.7	13
7	Go Ahead Eagles	9	4	1	4	-4	+5.6	13
8	Willem II	9	3	3	3	+2	-6.3	12
9	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	5	2	+0	+0.7	11
10	For Sittard	9	3	2	4	-5	-0.2	11
11	Nijmegen	9	3	1	5	+1	-3.6	10
12	Groningen	8	2	3	3	+0	-5.7	9
13	Heracles	8	2	3	3	-6	-4.6	9
14	NAC Breda	8	3	0	5	-8	-6.5	9
15	Heerenveen	8	2	2	4	-2	+0.1	8
16	Zwolle	8	2	2	4	-3	-6.0	8
17	Almere City	9	0	3	6	-17	-5.6	3
18	Waalwijk	9	0	1	8	-17	-10.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.5	12
2	Utrecht	4	4	0	0	+4	+2.0	12
3	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.0	9
4	NAC Breda	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.4	9
5	Heerenveen	4	2	2	0	+5	+5.2	8
6	Twente	4	2	2	0	+3	+8.1	8
7	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
8	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	+2	+0.4	7
9	Willem II	5	2	1	2	+2	-2.1	7
10	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	1	2	-1	+4.9	7
11	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
12	For Sittard	4	2	0	2	-1	+2.2	6
13	Groningen	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.8	5
14	Heracles	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.8	5
15	Sparta Rotterdam	5	0	4	1	-1	+2.6	4
16	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.1	3
17	Waalwijk	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.4	1
18	Almere City	5	0	1	4	-13	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+13	+8.0	15
2	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.6	10
3	Feyenoord	5	2	3	0	+8	+4.1	9
4	Twente	5	2	1	2	+4	+2.5	7
5	Utrecht	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.5	7
6	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
7	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	0	2	-3	+0.7	6
8	Willem II	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.2	5
9	For Sittard	5	1	2	2	-4	-2.3	5
10	Ajax	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.5	4
11	Groningen	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.8	4
12	Heracles	4	1	1	2	-5	-5.4	4
13	Nijmegen	4	1	0	3	-1	-4.0	3
14	Zwolle	4	0	2	2	-2	-5.9	2
15	Almere City	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.7	2
16	Heerenveen	4	0	0	4	-7	-5.2	0
17	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-10	-5.3	0
18	NAC Breda	4	0	0	4	-10	-6.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.