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Champions League
Referee: S Gozubuyuk
Leverkusen
S S T S T
2–2
Full-time
Newcastle
S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
3,0
3,7
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 50%
40%
60%
Points per game
1,6
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
40%
80%
Both score Ø 50%
60%
40%
Average goals
3,6
3,0
Scored
1,6
2,2
Conceded
2,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+1,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,20 xG 2,06
51% Possession 49%
17 Shots 13
7 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 6
9 Corners 6
9 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Leverkusen Newcastle
0–1 Bruno Guimaraes ⚽
own goal
13′
21′
🟨 Malick Thiaw
Half-time 0–1
C. Kofane 🔁
↦ P. Schick
46′
Ernest Poku 🟨
47′
Aleix García 🟨
51′
51′
⚽ A. Gordon 0–2
60′
🔁 L. Miley
↦ Joelinton
N. Tella 🔁
↦ E. Poku
71′
74′
⚽ L. Miley 0–3
A. Gordon
78′
🔁 J. Murphy
↦ H. Barnes
82′
🟨 Aaron Ramsdale
C. Echeverri 🔁
↦ M. Tillman
85′
1–3 A. Grimaldo ⚽
I. Maza
88′
L. Bade 🔁
↦ Arthur
90′
93′
🔁 Y. Wissa
↦ N. Woltemade
93′
🔁 J. Ramsey
↦ A. Gordon
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Leverkusen

3-4-2-1
1 M. Flekken G
4 J. Quansah D
8 R. Andrich D
12 E. Tapsoba D
13 Arthur M
30 I. Maza M
24 A. Garcia M
20 A. Grimaldo M
10 M. Tillman F
19 E. Poku F
14 P. Schick F
Bench (9)
28 J. Blaswich
36 N. Lomb
5 L. Bade
9 C. Echeverri
16 A. Tape
17 E. Ben Seghir
23 N. Tella
35 C. Kofane
44 J. Belocian

Coach: Kasper Hjulmand

Newcastle

4-3-3
32 A. Ramsdale G
21 V. Livramento D
12 M. Thiaw D
33 D. Burn D
3 L. Hall D
8 S. Tonali M
39 Bruno Guimaraes M
7 Joelinton M
11 H. Barnes F
27 N. Woltemade F
10 A. Gordon F
Bench (10)
59 A. Harrison
31 M. Thompson
5 F. Schar
9 Y. Wissa
20 A. Elanga
23 J. Murphy
28 J. Willock
37 A. Murphy
41 J. Ramsey
67 L. Miley

Coach: Eddie Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Gozubuyuk · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.