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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Porto

S S S S U

3–2

Full-time

Famalicao

S U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 47%

69%

24%

Points per game

2,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

52%

48%

Both score Ø 49%

52%

45%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

10 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Famalicao 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	29	22	7	0	+37	73
2	Porto	29	20	7	2	+33	67
3	Benfica	30	20	6	4	+37	66
4	Sp Braga	30	18	4	8	+19	58
5	Pacos Ferreira	30	14	6	10	+0	48
6	Guimaraes	30	12	5	13	-4	41
7	Santa Clara	29	10	6	13	+2	36
8	Moreirense	30	8	12	10	-9	36
9	Tondela	30	10	5	15	-17	35
10	Belenenses	30	7	13	10	-7	34
11	Portimonense	29	9	6	14	-4	33
12	Maritimo	30	10	3	17	-15	33
13	Famalicao	29	7	10	12	-9	31
14	Gil Vicente	29	9	4	16	-11	31
15	Rio Ave	29	6	12	11	-10	30
16	Boavista	29	6	10	13	-11	28
17	Farense	29	6	8	15	-10	26
18	Nacional	29	6	6	17	-21	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	11	2	2	+15	35
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	4	0	+17	34
3	Porto	14	10	3	1	+16	33
4	Sp Braga	15	10	2	3	+11	32
5	Pacos Ferreira	15	10	2	3	+6	32
6	Tondela	15	8	2	5	+0	26
7	Guimaraes	15	7	1	7	-3	22
8	Portimonense	14	6	3	5	+4	21
9	Belenenses	15	5	5	5	-2	20
10	Santa Clara	14	5	4	5	+5	19
11	Rio Ave	15	4	6	5	-1	18
12	Moreirense	15	3	9	3	-2	18
13	Maritimo	15	5	2	8	-10	17
14	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-6	15
15	Nacional	15	4	3	8	-8	15
16	Farense	15	3	5	7	-2	14
17	Gil Vicente	14	4	2	8	-6	14
18	Famalicao	15	2	7	6	-9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	12	3	0	+20	39
2	Porto	15	10	4	1	+17	34
3	Benfica	15	9	4	2	+22	31
4	Sp Braga	15	8	2	5	+8	26
5	Guimaraes	15	5	4	6	-1	19
6	Famalicao	14	5	3	6	+0	18
7	Moreirense	15	5	3	7	-7	18
8	Santa Clara	15	5	2	8	-3	17
9	Gil Vicente	15	5	2	8	-5	17
10	Maritimo	15	5	1	9	-5	16
11	Pacos Ferreira	15	4	4	7	-6	16
12	Belenenses	15	2	8	5	-5	14
13	Boavista	14	2	7	5	-5	13
14	Portimonense	15	3	3	9	-8	12
15	Farense	14	3	3	8	-8	12
16	Rio Ave	14	2	6	6	-9	12
17	Nacional	14	2	3	9	-13	9
18	Tondela	15	2	3	10	-17	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.