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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Tondela

S T T U S

0–2

Full-time

Porto

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 50%

32%

68%

Points per game

1,1

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

44%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

36% Possession 64%

7 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 12. · Porto 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	25	20	5	0	+35	65
2	Porto	25	17	6	2	+29	57
3	Benfica	25	16	6	3	+26	54
4	Sp Braga	25	17	2	6	+20	53
5	Pacos Ferreira	25	13	5	7	+8	44
6	Guimaraes	26	10	5	11	-5	35
7	Santa Clara	25	9	5	11	+0	32
8	Moreirense	25	7	10	8	-7	31
9	Portimonense	26	8	5	13	-1	29
10	Gil Vicente	25	8	4	13	-7	28
11	Rio Ave	26	6	10	10	-9	28
12	Tondela	25	8	4	13	-15	28
13	Belenenses	25	5	11	9	-9	26
14	Famalicao	25	6	8	11	-11	26
15	Boavista	26	5	10	11	-11	25
16	Maritimo	26	7	3	16	-16	24
17	Farense	26	5	7	14	-11	22
18	Nacional	25	5	6	14	-16	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+17	32
2	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+15	32
3	Porto	13	9	3	1	+15	30
4	Pacos Ferreira	12	9	2	1	+12	29
5	Sp Braga	12	9	1	2	+11	28
6	Tondela	12	7	2	3	+3	23
7	Portimonense	13	6	3	4	+8	21
8	Moreirense	13	3	8	2	-1	17
9	Rio Ave	13	4	4	5	-1	16
10	Guimaraes	13	5	1	7	-6	16
11	Santa Clara	12	4	3	5	+1	15
12	Gil Vicente	12	4	2	6	-2	14
13	Belenenses	13	3	5	5	-5	14
14	Farense	13	3	4	6	-1	13
15	Boavista	13	3	3	7	-7	12
16	Nacional	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Famalicao	13	2	6	5	-8	12
18	Maritimo	13	3	2	8	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	10	3	0	+18	33
2	Porto	12	8	3	1	+14	27
3	Sp Braga	13	8	1	4	+9	25
4	Benfica	12	6	4	2	+11	22
5	Guimaraes	13	5	4	4	+1	19
6	Santa Clara	13	5	2	6	-1	17
7	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	3	6	-4	15
8	Famalicao	12	4	2	6	-3	14
9	Gil Vicente	13	4	2	7	-5	14
10	Moreirense	12	4	2	6	-6	14
11	Boavista	13	2	7	4	-4	13
12	Maritimo	13	4	1	8	-4	13
13	Belenenses	12	2	6	4	-4	12
14	Rio Ave	13	2	6	5	-8	12
15	Nacional	12	2	3	7	-8	9
16	Farense	13	2	3	8	-10	9
17	Portimonense	13	2	2	9	-9	8
18	Tondela	13	1	2	10	-18	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.