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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Nacional

S T U T T

1–2

Full-time

Rio Ave

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,5

Scored

0,8

0,2

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 18%

18%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

52%

27%

Both score Ø 43%

55%

30%

Average goals

2,6

1,9

Scored

0,9

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%

11 Shots 30

2 Shots on target 14

3 Blocked shots 12

12 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 16

13 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 18. · Rio Ave 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	33	25	7	1	+41	82
2	Porto	34	24	8	2	+45	80
3	Benfica	33	22	7	4	+40	73
4	Sp Braga	33	19	6	8	+20	63
5	Pacos Ferreira	34	15	8	11	-1	53
6	Santa Clara	33	12	7	14	+4	43
7	Guimaraes	33	12	7	14	-5	43
8	Famalicao	33	10	10	13	-5	40
9	Moreirense	33	9	13	11	-9	40
10	Belenenses	34	9	13	12	-10	40
11	Gil Vicente	33	11	6	16	-8	39
12	Tondela	34	10	6	18	-21	36
13	Maritimo	33	10	5	18	-16	35
14	Portimonense	33	9	7	17	-7	34
15	Boavista	33	7	12	14	-11	33
16	Farense	33	7	10	16	-13	31
17	Rio Ave	33	6	13	14	-16	31
18	Nacional	33	6	7	20	-28	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	13	3	1	+25	42
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	4	0	+20	40
3	Benfica	17	12	3	2	+16	39
4	Sp Braga	17	11	3	3	+12	36
5	Pacos Ferreira	17	10	3	4	+4	33
6	Tondela	17	8	2	7	-3	26
7	Santa Clara	16	6	5	5	+6	23
8	Belenenses	17	6	5	6	-3	23
9	Portimonense	16	6	4	6	+3	22
10	Guimaraes	16	7	1	8	-4	22
11	Moreirense	16	3	10	3	-2	19
12	Famalicao	17	4	7	6	-5	19
13	Boavista	17	5	4	8	-5	19
14	Farense	17	4	6	7	-1	18
15	Rio Ave	17	4	6	7	-6	18
16	Maritimo	17	5	3	9	-11	18
17	Gil Vicente	16	4	4	8	-6	16
18	Nacional	16	4	3	9	-10	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+21	42
2	Porto	17	11	5	1	+20	38
3	Benfica	16	10	4	2	+24	34
4	Sp Braga	16	8	3	5	+8	27
5	Gil Vicente	17	7	2	8	-2	23
6	Famalicao	16	6	3	7	+0	21
7	Guimaraes	17	5	6	6	-1	21
8	Moreirense	17	6	3	8	-7	21
9	Santa Clara	17	6	2	9	-2	20
10	Pacos Ferreira	17	5	5	7	-5	20
11	Maritimo	16	5	2	9	-5	17
12	Belenenses	17	3	8	6	-7	17
13	Boavista	16	2	8	6	-6	14
14	Rio Ave	16	2	7	7	-10	13
15	Farense	16	3	4	9	-12	13
16	Portimonense	17	3	3	11	-10	12
17	Tondela	17	2	4	11	-18	10
18	Nacional	17	2	4	11	-18	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.