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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Nacional

T T T T T

1–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

0,7

Conceded

2,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

-2,2

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 29%

18%

39%

Points per game

0,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 48%

57%

39%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%

8 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 18. · Guimaraes 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	29	22	7	0	+37	73
2	Porto	28	20	6	2	+33	66
3	Benfica	28	18	6	4	+34	60
4	Sp Braga	29	18	4	7	+20	58
5	Pacos Ferreira	29	13	6	10	-1	45
6	Guimaraes	28	11	5	12	-5	38
7	Santa Clara	28	10	6	12	+3	36
8	Moreirense	28	8	11	9	-7	35
9	Belenenses	29	7	13	9	-6	34
10	Tondela	28	10	4	14	-15	34
11	Portimonense	28	9	5	14	-4	32
12	Gil Vicente	29	9	4	16	-11	31
13	Famalicao	28	7	9	12	-9	30
14	Rio Ave	29	6	12	11	-10	30
15	Maritimo	29	9	3	17	-16	30
16	Boavista	29	6	10	13	-11	28
17	Farense	28	6	7	15	-10	25
18	Nacional	28	5	6	17	-22	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	10	4	0	+17	34
2	Porto	14	10	3	1	+16	33
3	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+14	32
4	Sp Braga	15	10	2	3	+11	32
5	Pacos Ferreira	14	9	2	3	+5	29
6	Tondela	14	8	2	4	+2	26
7	Portimonense	14	6	3	5	+4	21
8	Belenenses	15	5	5	5	-2	20
9	Santa Clara	14	5	4	5	+5	19
10	Guimaraes	14	6	1	7	-5	19
11	Rio Ave	15	4	6	5	-1	18
12	Moreirense	14	3	8	3	-2	17
13	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-6	15
14	Gil Vicente	14	4	2	8	-6	14
15	Maritimo	14	4	2	8	-11	14
16	Farense	14	3	4	7	-2	13
17	Nacional	14	3	3	8	-9	12
18	Famalicao	14	2	6	6	-9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	12	3	0	+20	39
2	Porto	14	10	3	1	+17	33
3	Benfica	14	8	4	2	+20	28
4	Sp Braga	14	8	2	4	+9	26
5	Guimaraes	14	5	4	5	+0	19
6	Famalicao	14	5	3	6	+0	18
7	Moreirense	14	5	3	6	-5	18
8	Santa Clara	14	5	2	7	-2	17
9	Gil Vicente	15	5	2	8	-5	17
10	Maritimo	15	5	1	9	-5	16
11	Pacos Ferreira	15	4	4	7	-6	16
12	Belenenses	14	2	8	4	-4	14
13	Boavista	14	2	7	5	-5	13
14	Farense	14	3	3	8	-8	12
15	Rio Ave	14	2	6	6	-9	12
16	Portimonense	14	3	2	9	-8	11
17	Nacional	14	2	3	9	-13	9
18	Tondela	14	2	2	10	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.