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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Tottenham

U S S T S

1–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

U S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tottenham Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 43%

47%

39%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

53%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

60% Possession 40%

10 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tottenham 6. · Aston Villa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	37	26	5	6	+46	83
2	Man United	37	20	11	6	+28	71
3	Chelsea	37	19	10	8	+23	67
4	Leicester	37	20	6	11	+20	66
5	Liverpool	36	18	9	9	+21	63
6	Tottenham	36	17	8	11	+22	59
7	West Ham	36	17	8	11	+10	59
8	Leeds	37	17	5	15	+6	56
9	Everton	36	16	8	12	+3	56
10	Arsenal	36	16	7	13	+12	55
11	Aston Villa	36	14	7	15	+7	49
12	Wolves	36	12	9	15	-14	45
13	Crystal Palace	36	12	8	16	-21	44
14	Southampton	37	12	7	18	-18	43
15	Brighton	37	9	14	14	-4	41
16	Burnley	36	10	9	17	-18	39
17	Newcastle	36	10	9	17	-19	39
18	Fulham	37	5	13	19	-24	28
19	West Brom	36	5	11	20	-37	26
20	Sheffield United	36	6	2	28	-43	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	12	2	4	+21	38
2	Tottenham	18	10	3	5	+16	33
3	Chelsea	19	9	6	4	+13	33
4	Man United	19	9	4	6	+10	31
5	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
6	Liverpool	18	9	3	6	+7	30
7	Leicester	18	9	1	8	+6	28
8	Southampton	19	8	3	8	+3	27
9	Leeds	18	7	5	6	+5	26
10	Arsenal	18	7	4	7	+1	25
11	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-3	25
12	Crystal Palace	18	6	5	7	-10	23
13	Aston Villa	18	6	4	8	+1	22
14	Brighton	19	4	9	6	+0	21
15	Newcastle	18	5	5	8	-8	20
16	Everton	18	5	4	9	-5	19
17	Burnley	18	4	6	8	-10	18
18	West Brom	18	3	6	9	-22	15
19	Sheffield United	18	4	1	13	-16	13
20	Fulham	18	2	4	12	-17	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	19	14	3	2	+25	45
2	Man United	18	11	7	0	+18	40
3	Leicester	19	11	5	3	+14	38
4	Everton	18	11	4	3	+8	37
5	Chelsea	18	10	4	4	+10	34
6	Liverpool	18	9	6	3	+14	33
7	Arsenal	18	9	3	6	+11	30
8	Leeds	19	10	0	9	+1	30
9	West Ham	18	8	4	6	+3	28
10	Aston Villa	18	8	3	7	+6	27
11	Tottenham	18	7	5	6	+6	26
12	Burnley	18	6	3	9	-8	21
13	Crystal Palace	18	6	3	9	-11	21
14	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-4	20
15	Wolves	18	5	5	8	-11	20
16	Newcastle	18	5	4	9	-11	19
17	Fulham	19	3	9	7	-7	18
18	Southampton	18	4	4	10	-21	16
19	West Brom	18	2	5	11	-15	11
20	Sheffield United	18	2	1	15	-27	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.