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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Guimaraes

T S S S T

0–1

Full-time

Casa Pia

U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/3 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

1,0

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

1,0

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 7. · Casa Pia 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+14	10
2	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+6	9
4	Portimonense	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Estoril	4	2	1	1	+4	7
6	Chaves	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Boavista	4	2	0	2	-3	6
9	Arouca	4	2	0	2	-8	6
10	Casa Pia	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Vizela	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Sp Lisbon	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Famalicao	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Santa Clara	4	0	1	3	-3	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	0	3	-7	0
18	Maritimo	4	0	0	4	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+5	4
3	Estoril	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Boavista	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-5	3
14	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Chaves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Portimonense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Chaves	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Porto	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Boavista	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-3	3
11	Casa Pia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Sp Lisbon	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.