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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Arouca

T T S S S

3–2

Full-time

Porto

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,7

2,5

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 53%

35%

70%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

60%

45%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

45%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

1,4

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,62 xG 1,43

37% Possession 63%

10 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 7

1 Offside 5

20 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 8. · Porto 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	20	17	1	2	+39	+27.2	52
2	Benfica	21	16	4	1	+32	+25.1	52
3	Porto	20	14	3	3	+20	+13.2	45
4	Sp Braga	21	12	4	5	+12	+11.8	40
5	Guimaraes	21	12	4	5	+12	+6.7	40
6	Moreirense	21	10	5	6	+2	+0.5	35
7	Farense	21	7	5	9	+0	-4.8	26
8	Arouca	20	7	4	9	+5	-0.8	25
9	Boavista	21	6	6	9	-9	-10.6	24
10	Famalicao	20	5	8	7	-5	-5.6	23
11	Gil Vicente	20	6	4	10	-4	-7.5	22
12	Estoril	21	6	3	12	-2	-8.5	21
13	Rio Ave	21	4	9	8	-8	+1.0	21
14	Estrela	21	5	6	10	-10	-6.3	21
15	Portimonense	21	6	3	12	-21	-13.0	21
16	Casa Pia	21	5	5	11	-16	-8.3	20
17	Chaves	21	3	5	13	-27	-13.0	14
18	Vizela	20	2	7	11	-20	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	11	0	0	+30	+18.7	33
2	Benfica	10	8	2	0	+19	+15.7	26
3	Guimaraes	11	8	1	2	+13	+9.2	25
4	Porto	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.2	23
5	Gil Vicente	10	5	4	1	+10	-2.8	19
6	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+10	+14.6	18
7	Moreirense	10	5	2	3	+2	+1.5	17
8	Estoril	10	5	1	4	+10	+0.9	16
9	Rio Ave	11	4	4	3	+1	+4.3	16
10	Farense	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.0	15
11	Estrela	11	4	1	6	-4	-3.9	13
12	Boavista	11	3	4	4	-6	-3.1	13
13	Famalicao	9	3	3	3	-2	-1.1	12
14	Arouca	10	3	2	5	+1	-0.6	11
15	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.5	11
16	Chaves	10	2	3	5	-7	-1.8	9
17	Casa Pia	10	1	3	6	-8	-2.4	6
18	Vizela	11	1	3	7	-12	-2.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	2	1	+13	+9.5	26
2	Porto	10	7	1	2	+8	+0.0	22
3	Sp Braga	11	7	1	3	+2	-2.8	22
4	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+9	+8.6	19
5	Moreirense	11	5	3	3	+0	-1.1	18
6	Guimaraes	10	4	3	3	-1	-2.5	15
7	Arouca	10	4	2	4	+4	-0.2	14
8	Casa Pia	11	4	2	5	-8	-5.9	14
9	Boavista	10	3	2	5	-3	-7.5	11
10	Farense	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.9	11
11	Famalicao	11	2	5	4	-3	-4.5	11
12	Portimonense	11	3	1	7	-15	-8.5	10
13	Estrela	10	1	5	4	-6	-2.4	8
14	Vizela	9	1	4	4	-8	-4.9	7
15	Rio Ave	10	0	5	5	-9	-3.3	5
16	Estoril	11	1	2	8	-12	-9.5	5
17	Chaves	11	1	2	8	-20	-11.2	5
18	Gil Vicente	10	1	0	9	-14	-4.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.